Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Real Madrid won it

Real Madrid struck first through Arda Güler in the 30th minute, set up by Yan Diomande. Kylian Mbappé made it 2-0 to Real Madrid in the 37th minute, set up by Jude Bellingham. Kylian Mbappé from the penalty spot made it 3-0 to Real Madrid in the 63rd minute. Manu Bueno made it 3-1 to Sevilla in the 80th minute, set up by Lucas Stassin. Yan Diomande made it 4-1 to Real Madrid in the 82nd minute, set up by Aurélien Tchouaméni.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

Kylian Mbappé scored twice.

The referee, M. Busquets Ferrer, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Real Madrid and 2 to Sevilla.

Real Madrid: José Mourinho, 4-2-3-1 · Sevilla: L. García Plaza, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Sevilla +2.00, and on 4-1 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Real Madrid win at 72%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (10%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.5 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Real Madrid win at 74%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.39 for Real Madrid and 1.73 for Sevilla.

Real Madrid scored about 2.6 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Real Madrid had 8 shots on target, Sevilla 5.

Real Madrid had 65% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Real Madrid came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 2.18 expected goals for and 1.15 against, and had won 83% of their matches.

Sevilla came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.31 expected goals for and 1.37 against, and had won 42% of their matches.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Real Madrid

• Kylian Mbappé 8.5 2 goals
• Yan Diomande 8.4 1 goal, 1 assist
• Arda Güler 8.2 1 goal
• Thibaut Courtois 7.2
• Aurélien Tchouaméni 7.2 1 assist

Sevilla

• Manu Bueno 7.1 1 goal
• Lucas Stassin 6.9 1 assist
• Chidera Ejuke 6.8
• Lucien Agoumé 6.6
• Youssouf Fofana 6.5

The lowest-rated starter was Andrés Castrín at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Real Madrid: Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
• Sevilla: Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Real Madrid vs Sevilla

What was the score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla (half-time 2-0), La Liga, Sunday 18 October 2026.

Who scored in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Arda Güler 30', Kylian Mbappé 37', Kylian Mbappé 63', Manu Bueno 80', Yan Diomande 82'.

Did Moneyball predict Real Madrid vs Sevilla correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Sevilla +2.00, and on 4-1 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Kylian Mbappé, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

M. Busquets Ferrer.