Real Betis 2-1 Málaga: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
La Liga Matchday 11 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla, Sevilla · referee M. Busquets Ferrer · full time
Full time: Real Betis 2-1 Málaga
Real Betis won 2-1 at home to Málaga in La Liga Matchday 11 on Saturday 31 October 2026. The goals: Marc Bartra 38', Pablo Fornals 45+2', Adrián Niño Heredia 68'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Real Betis won it
Real Betis struck first through Marc Bartra in the 38th minute, set up by Isco. Pablo Fornals made it 2-0 to Real Betis in the 45th minute (+2). Adrián Niño Heredia made it 2-1 to Málaga in the 68th minute.
It was 2-0 at half-time.
The referee, M. Busquets Ferrer, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Real Betis and 2 to Málaga.
Real Betis: M. Pellegrini, 4-2-3-1 · Málaga: J. Funes Arjona, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Real Betis Win, and on 2-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Real Betis win at 63%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (10%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 60%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.15 for Real Betis and 1.78 for Málaga.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Real Betis to create more, and Málaga did.
Real Betis had 6 shots on target, Málaga 5.
Real Betis had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Real Betis came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.66 expected goals for and 1.51 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
Málaga came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Real Betis vs Málaga: the match in numbers
| Real Betis | Match statistics | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Ball possession | 41% |
| 1.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 |
| 24 | Total shots | 10 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Big chances | 2 |
| 615 | Total passes | 432 |
| 89% | Pass accuracy | 88% |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 24 | Tackles | 15 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Abde Ezzalzouli (Real Betis), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Real Betis
- Abde Ezzalzouli 8.2
- Pablo Fornals 8.1 1 goal
- Isco 8.1 1 assist
- Marc Bartra 7.5 1 goal
- Marc Roca 7.2
Málaga
- Adrián Niño Heredia 7.5 1 goal
- Fernando Calero 7.3
- Carlos Dotor 6.9
- Rafita Garrido 6.8
- Adam Aznou 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was David Larrubia at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Real Betis: Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
- Málaga: Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026 · La Liga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Real Betis vs Málaga
What was the score in Real Betis vs Málaga?
Real Betis 2-1 Málaga (half-time 2-0), La Liga, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Real Betis vs Málaga?
Marc Bartra 38', Pablo Fornals 45+2', Adrián Niño Heredia 68'.
Did Moneyball predict Real Betis vs Málaga correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Real Betis Win, and on 2-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Real Betis vs Málaga?
Abde Ezzalzouli, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Real Betis vs Málaga?
M. Busquets Ferrer.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.