Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Elche: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Elche won it

Elche struck first through Federico Redondo from the penalty spot in the 23rd minute. Fer Niño from the penalty spot made it 0-2 to Elche in the 36th minute. Germán Valera made it 0-3 to Elche in the 68th minute, set up by Facundo Buonanotte.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

The referee, M. Sesma Espinosa, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Rayo Vallecano and 3 to Elche. Pathé Ciss missed a penalty for Rayo Vallecano in the 39 minute.

Rayo Vallecano: B. San José Gil, 4-2-3-1 · Elche: M. Anselmi, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Rayo Vallecano Win, and on 0-3 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Rayo Vallecano win at 54%; an Elche win, at 21%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.7 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 51%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 52%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Rayo Vallecano win at 53%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.54 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.46 for Elche.

Rayo Vallecano scored about 2.5 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Elche made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.5 goals.

Rayo Vallecano created the better chances, 2.54 xG to 1.46, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

Rayo Vallecano had 5 shots on target, Elche 9.

Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

Rayo Vallecano had 57% of the ball, but Elche took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Rayo Vallecano came into it with 11 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.33 expected goals for and 1.77 against, and had won 27% of their matches.

Elche came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.32 expected goals for and 1.53 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Matías Dituro (Elche), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.

Rayo Vallecano

• Unai López 7.7
• Emil Audero 7.1
• Gnangoro 7.0
• Pedro Díaz 6.8
• Álvaro García 6.7

Elche

• Matías Dituro 8.1
• Roy Revivo 7.8
• Thomas Lemar 7.7
• Javi Morcillo 7.5
• Germán Valera 7.4 1 goal

The lowest-rated starter was Adrià Pedrosa at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Rayo Vallecano: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
• Elche: Levante vs Elche Monday 23 November 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

What was the score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Elche (half-time 0-2), La Liga, Saturday 24 October 2026.

Who scored in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Federico Redondo 23', Fer Niño 36', Germán Valera 68'.

Did Moneyball predict Rayo Vallecano vs Elche correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Rayo Vallecano Win, and on 0-3 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

Matías Dituro, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

M. Sesma Espinosa.