Philadelphia Union 4-1 Toronto: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Philadelphia Union won it

Cavan Sullivan put Philadelphia Union ahead in the 28th minute, set up by Indiana Vassilev. Quinn Sullivan from the penalty spot made it 2-0 to Philadelphia Union in the 41st minute. Josh Sargent made it 2-1 to Toronto in the 45th minute (+7), set up by Djordje Mihailovic. Cavan Sullivan made it 3-1 to Philadelphia Union in the 58th minute, set up by Quinn Sullivan. Bruno Damiani from the penalty spot made it 4-1 to Philadelphia Union in the 73rd minute.

It was 2-1 at half-time.

Cavan Sullivan scored twice.

The referee, T. Ford, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Philadelphia Union and 2 to Toronto.

Philadelphia Union: R. Richter, 4-4-2 · Toronto: R. Fraser, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A Philadelphia Union win was the estimate's call at 64%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 3-1 was the likeliest, 4-1 the real one.

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 70%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.40 for Philadelphia Union and 3.75 for Toronto.

Philadelphia Union scored about 3.6 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Toronto left about 2.7 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Toronto created the better chances, 3.75 xG to 0.40, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Philadelphia Union to create more, and Toronto did.

Philadelphia Union had 9 shots on target, Toronto 2.

Toronto had 57% of the ball, but Philadelphia Union took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Philadelphia Union came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 2.06 expected goals for and 1.31 against, and had won 41% of their matches.

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Quinn Sullivan (Philadelphia Union), rated 9.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Philadelphia Union

• Quinn Sullivan 9.1 1 goal, 1 assist
• Cavan Sullivan 9.0 2 goals
• Bruno Damiani 7.5 1 goal
• Indiana Vassilev 7.4 1 assist
• Kai Wagner 7.1

Toronto

• Josh Sargent 7.1 1 goal
• Richie Laryea 7.0
• Theo Corbeanu 6.7
• Djordje Mihailovic 6.7 1 assist
• Zane Monlouis 6.5

The lowest-rated starter was Richard Chukwu at 5.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Philadelphia Union: New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026 · MLS

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Philadelphia Union vs Toronto

What was the score in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?

Philadelphia Union 4-1 Toronto (half-time 2-1), MLS, Saturday 7 November 2026.

Who scored in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?

Cavan Sullivan 28', Quinn Sullivan 41', Josh Sargent 45+7', Cavan Sullivan 58', Bruno Damiani 73'.

Did Moneyball predict Philadelphia Union vs Toronto correctly?

A Philadelphia Union win was the estimate's call at 64%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 3-1 was the likeliest, 4-1 the real one.

Who was man of the match in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?

Quinn Sullivan, rated 9.1 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Philadelphia Union vs Toronto?

T. Ford.