Parma 1-2 Bologna: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Bologna won it

The opening goal came in the 53rd minute: Arthur Theate for Bologna, set up by Nicolò Cambiaghi. Riccardo Orsolini from the penalty spot made it 0-2 to Bologna in the 72nd minute. Vincent Sierro from the penalty spot made it 1-2 to Parma in the 81st minute.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Abdoulaye Ndiaye of Parma was sent off in the 9th minute. The referee, L. Zufferli, showed 5 yellow cards: 3 to Parma and 2 to Bologna.

Parma: G. Caridi, 3-5-2 · Bologna: R. Palladino, 3-4-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.25, and on 1-2 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Bologna win at 55%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-1 (13%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.4 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 44%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 46%; both did, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 3.50 for Parma and 1.55 for Bologna.

Parma scored about 2.5 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Parma created the better chances, 3.50 xG to 1.55, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Bologna to create more, and Parma did.

Parma had 2 shots on target, Bologna 10.

Parma's goalkeeper made 8 saves.

Bologna had 69% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Parma came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 0.94 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 18% of their matches.

Bologna came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.63 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Parma vs Bologna: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nicolò Cambiaghi (Bologna), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.

Parma

• Giovanni Daffara 7.8
• Vincent Sierro 7.3 1 goal
• Mariano Troilo 7.1
• Giovanni Fabbian 7.0
• Simone Lontani 7.0

Bologna

• Nicolò Cambiaghi 8.2 1 assist
• Federico Bernardeschi 8.2
• Lewis Ferguson 7.8
• Arthur Theate 7.6 1 goal
• Samuel Mbangula 7.5

The lowest-rated starter was Abdoulaye Ndiaye at 5.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Parma: Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A
• Bologna: Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Parma vs Bologna

What was the score in Parma vs Bologna?

Parma 1-2 Bologna (half-time 0-0), Serie A, Saturday 7 November 2026.

Who scored in Parma vs Bologna?

Arthur Theate 53', Riccardo Orsolini 72', Vincent Sierro 81'.

Did Moneyball predict Parma vs Bologna correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.25, and on 1-2 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Parma vs Bologna?

Nicolò Cambiaghi, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Parma vs Bologna?

L. Zufferli.