MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Paris Saint Germain 4-2 FC Barcelona: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Paris Saint Germain 4-2 FC Barcelona

Paris Saint Germain beat FC Barcelona 4-2 in Champions League Matchday 3 on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Parc des Princes. The goals: Désiré Doué 38', Xavi Espart 55', Lucas Hernández 72', Lamine Yamal 79', Vitinha 81', Fabián Ruiz 86'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How Paris Saint Germain won it

Paris Saint Germain struck first through Désiré Doué in the 38th minute, set up by João Neves. FC Barcelona levelled at 1-1 in the 55th minute through Xavi Espart, set up by Fermín López. Lucas Hernández made it 2-1 to Paris Saint Germain in the 72nd minute, set up by Désiré Doué. FC Barcelona levelled at 2-2 in the 79th minute through Lamine Yamal. Vitinha made it 3-2 to Paris Saint Germain in the 81st minute. Fabián Ruiz made it 4-2 to Paris Saint Germain in the 86th minute, set up by Achraf Hakimi.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

The referee, M. Oliver, showed 1 yellow card: 0 to Paris Saint Germain and 1 to FC Barcelona.

Paris Saint Germain: L. Martínez García, 4-3-3 · FC Barcelona: H. Flick, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 4.25, and on 4-2 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a FC Barcelona win at 40%; a Paris Saint Germain win, at 40%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-2 (7%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 4.4 goals and there were 6.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 78%; with 6 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 79%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a FC Barcelona win at 39%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-20, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Paris Saint Germain had 14 shots on target, FC Barcelona 5.

FC Barcelona's goalkeeper made 10 saves.

FC Barcelona had 53% of the ball, but Paris Saint Germain took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Paris Saint Germain came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 5.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.96 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

FC Barcelona came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 3.5 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 2.35 expected goals for and – against, and had won 75% of their matches.

Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona: the match in numbers

Paris Saint GermainMatch statisticsFC Barcelona
47%Ball possession53%
22Total shots18
14Shots on target5
7Big chances5
477Total passes539
85%Pass accuracy88%
2Corners3
11Fouls10
2Offsides1
17Tackles9
3Saves10
0Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Désiré Doué (Paris Saint Germain), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Paris Saint Germain

FC Barcelona

The lowest-rated starter was Anthony Gordon at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona

What was the score in Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona?

Paris Saint Germain 4-2 FC Barcelona (half-time 1-0), Champions League, Tuesday 20 October 2026.

Who scored in Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona?

Désiré Doué 38', Xavi Espart 55', Lucas Hernández 72', Lamine Yamal 79', Vitinha 81', Fabián Ruiz 86'.

Did Moneyball predict Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 4.25, and on 4-2 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona?

Désiré Doué, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona?

M. Oliver.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.