Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Nottingham Forest won it

Nottingham Forest struck first through Jair Cunha in the 6th minute. Liam Delap made it 2-0 to Nottingham Forest in the 18th minute, set up by Xaver Schlager. Rayan Cherki made it 2-1 to Manchester City in the 52nd minute. Liam Delap made it 3-1 to Nottingham Forest in the 73rd minute, set up by Morgan Gibbs-White.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

Liam Delap scored twice.

The referee, S. Barrott, showed 4 yellow cards: 4 to Nottingham Forest and 0 to Manchester City.

Nottingham Forest: O. Glasner, 3-4-2-1 · Manchester City: E. Maresca, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75, and on 3-1 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Manchester City win at 53%; a Nottingham Forest win, at 23%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 54%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 56%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.56 for Nottingham Forest and 1.06 for Manchester City.

Nottingham Forest scored about 1.4 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Manchester City to create more, and Nottingham Forest did.

Nottingham Forest had 5 shots on target, Manchester City 4.

Manchester City had 78% of the ball, but Nottingham Forest took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Nottingham Forest came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 20% of their matches.

Manchester City came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.97 expected goals for and 1.09 against, and had won 70% of their matches.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Liam Delap (Nottingham Forest), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Nottingham Forest

• Liam Delap 8.2 2 goals
• Jair Cunha 7.8 1 goal
• Murillo 7.3
• Morgan Gibbs-White 7.3 1 assist
• Daniel Muñoz 7.0

Manchester City

• Rayan Cherki 7.5 1 goal
• Matheus Nunes 7.1
• Elliot Anderson 7.1
• Iliman Ndiaye 6.9
• Erling Haaland 6.7

The lowest-rated starter was Josko Gvardiol at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Nottingham Forest: AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
• Manchester City: Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

What was the score in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City (half-time 2-0), Premier League, Saturday 7 November 2026.

Who scored in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

Jair Cunha 6', Liam Delap 18', Rayan Cherki 52', Liam Delap 73'.

Did Moneyball predict Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75, and on 3-1 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

Liam Delap, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?

S. Barrott.