Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Premier League Matchday 7 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · referee J. Gillett · full time
Full time: Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa
Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa: Aston Villa took the points in Premier League Matchday 7 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at St. James' Park. The goals: Johan Manzambi 36'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Aston Villa won it
Aston Villa struck first through Johan Manzambi in the 36th minute, set up by João Gomes.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.
The referee, J. Gillett, showed 8 yellow cards: 6 to Newcastle United and 2 to Aston Villa.
Newcastle United: M. Jaissle, 4-2-3-1 · Aston Villa: U. Emery Etxegoien, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75, and on 0-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Newcastle United win at 40%; an Aston Villa win, at 34%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.9 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 56%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 59%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Newcastle United win at 45%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.72 for Newcastle United and 1.30 for Aston Villa.
Newcastle United scored about 1.7 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Newcastle United had 1 shot on target, Aston Villa 3.
Newcastle United had 50% of the ball, but Aston Villa took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Newcastle United came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.26 expected goals for and 1.84 against, and had won 30% of their matches.
Aston Villa came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.37 expected goals for and 1.95 against, and had won 30% of their matches.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: the match in numbers
| Newcastle United | Match statistics | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Ball possession | 50% |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| 16 | Total shots | 15 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 0 | Big chances | 3 |
| 407 | Total passes | 431 |
| 83% | Pass accuracy | 81% |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 13 | Tackles | 24 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Newcastle United
- Sven Botman 7.4
- Malick Thiaw 7.4
- Yoane Wissa 7.1
- Lewis Hall 7.0
- Harvey Barnes 6.8
Aston Villa
- Johan Manzambi 7.6 1 goal
- Boubacar Kamara 7.4
- Emiliano Buendía 7.3
- Zion Suzuki 7.2
- Matty Cash 7.2
The lowest-rated starter was Matías Fernández-Pardo at 6.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Newcastle United: Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
- Aston Villa: Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
What was the score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United 0-1 Aston Villa (half-time 0-1), Premier League, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Johan Manzambi 36'.
Did Moneyball predict Newcastle United vs Aston Villa correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75, and on 0-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Johan Manzambi, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
J. Gillett.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.