Nacional 1-0 Sporting Braga: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Nacional won it

Miguel Baeza put Nacional ahead in the 19th minute, set up by Min-kyu Song.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, J. Torres Bessa, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Nacional and 2 to Sporting Braga.

Nacional: J. Oliveira Nunes Henriques, 5-4-1 · Sporting Braga: F. da Silva Maia Carvalho, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A miss for the model: 44% for a Sporting Braga win, 29% for a Nacional win, and football chose the second.

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.6 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 49%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 54%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.72 for Nacional and 0.49 for Sporting Braga.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Sporting Braga to create more, and Nacional did.

Nacional had 4 shots on target, Sporting Braga 2.

Sporting Braga had 71% of the ball, but Nacional took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Nacional came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.07 expected goals for and 1.59 against, and had won 27% of their matches.

Sporting Braga came into it with 11 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.33 expected goals for and 0.72 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Nacional vs Sporting Braga: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Miguel Baeza (Nacional), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Nacional

• Miguel Baeza 7.7 1 goal
• Ze Vitor 7.5
• Matheus Dias 7.4
• Chiheb Labidi 7.3
• Renato Marin 7.1

Sporting Braga

• Víctor Gómez 7.2
• Ricardo Horta 7.2
• Sergio Barcia 7.2
• Pau Víctor 7.2
• Gustaf Lagerbielke 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Abdel Kader Njoya at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Sporting Braga: Sporting Braga vs KuPS Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Nacional vs Sporting Braga

What was the score in Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

Nacional 1-0 Sporting Braga (half-time 1-0), Liga Portugal, Sunday 25 October 2026.

Who scored in Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

Miguel Baeza 19'.

Did Moneyball predict Nacional vs Sporting Braga correctly?

A miss for the model: 44% for a Sporting Braga win, 29% for a Nacional win, and football chose the second.

Who was man of the match in Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

Miguel Baeza, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Nacional vs Sporting Braga?

J. Torres Bessa.