MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens

Manchester City won 5-1 at home to AEK Athens in Champions League Matchday 3 on Tuesday 20 October 2026. The goals: Elliot Anderson 12', Phil Foden 34', Stavros Pilios 52', Rayan Cherki 57', Phil Foden 65', Phil Foden 76'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How Manchester City won it

Manchester City struck first through Elliot Anderson in the 12th minute, set up by Enzo Fernández. Phil Foden made it 2-0 to Manchester City in the 34th minute, set up by Rico Lewis. Stavros Pilios made it 2-1 to AEK Athens in the 52nd minute, set up by Zini. Rayan Cherki made it 3-1 to Manchester City in the 57th minute, set up by Phil Foden. Phil Foden made it 4-1 to Manchester City in the 65th minute, set up by Rico Lewis. Phil Foden made it 5-1 to Manchester City in the 76th minute, set up by Ryan McAidoo.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

Phil Foden scored a hat-trick.

The referee, W. Delajod, showed 1 yellow card: 1 to Manchester City and 0 to AEK Athens.

Manchester City: E. Maresca, 4-2-3-1 · AEK Athens: M. Nikolić, 4-4-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AEK Athens +2.75, and on 5-1 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Manchester City win at 86%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 3-0 (12%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.9 goals and there were 6.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 72%; with 6 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 45%; both did, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Manchester City win at 85%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-20, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Manchester City had 7 shots on target, AEK Athens 3.

Manchester City had 64% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Manchester City came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 2.49 expected goals for and – against, and had won 75% of their matches.

AEK Athens came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 a match, with 1.43 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Manchester City vs AEK Athens: the match in numbers

Manchester CityMatch statisticsAEK Athens
64%Ball possession36%
17Total shots11
7Shots on target3
4Big chances1
680Total passes386
94%Pass accuracy89%
8Corners3
6Fouls10
0Offsides1
11Tackles22
2Saves2
1Yellow cards0

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Phil Foden (Manchester City), rated 9.9 by Sportmonks, with 3 goals, 1 assist.

Manchester City

AEK Athens

The lowest-rated starter was Alberto Brignoli at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Manchester City vs AEK Athens

What was the score in Manchester City vs AEK Athens?

Manchester City 5-1 AEK Athens (half-time 2-0), Champions League, Tuesday 20 October 2026.

Who scored in Manchester City vs AEK Athens?

Elliot Anderson 12', Phil Foden 34', Stavros Pilios 52', Rayan Cherki 57', Phil Foden 65', Phil Foden 76'.

Did Moneyball predict Manchester City vs AEK Athens correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AEK Athens +2.75, and on 5-1 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Manchester City vs AEK Athens?

Phil Foden, rated 9.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Manchester City vs AEK Athens?

W. Delajod.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.