Lugano 3-2 Crvena Zvezda: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Lugano won it

Lugano struck first through Albian Ajeti in the 25th minute, set up by Renato Steffen. Crvena Zvezda levelled at 1-1 in the 32nd minute through Timi Max Elsnik, set up by Matej Gashtarov. Crvena Zvezda turned it round: Rade Krunic made it 1-2 in the 67th minute, set up by Muhammed Cham. Lugano levelled at 2-2 in the 84th minute through Dereck Moncada, set up by Yanis Cimignani. Lugano turned it round: Anto Grgic from the penalty spot made it 3-2 in the 89th minute. It came late, and it settled the match.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The lead changed hands 2 times.

The referee, F. Badstübner, showed 7 yellow cards: 2 to Lugano and 5 to Crvena Zvezda.

Lugano: M. Croci-Torti, 3-4-2-1 · Crvena Zvezda: A. Riera Ortega, 5-4-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 45%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 3-2.

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.9 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Lugano had 5 shots on target, Crvena Zvezda 5.

Crvena Zvezda had 59% of the ball, but Lugano took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Lugano came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.24 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

Crvena Zvezda came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.96 expected goals for and – against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Timi Max Elsnik (Crvena Zvezda), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Lugano

• Anto Grgic 7.6 1 goal
• Dereck Moncada 7.5 1 goal
• Albian Ajeti 7.3 1 goal
• Beckham Castro 7.1
• Uran Bislimi 7.0

Crvena Zvezda

• Timi Max Elsnik 7.6 1 goal
• Rade Krunic 7.5 1 goal
• Muhammed Cham 7.4 1 assist
• Matej Gashtarov 7.1 1 assist
• Tomás Händel 7.0

The lowest-rated starter was Stefan Gudelj at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Lugano: Jablonec vs Lugano Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League
• Crvena Zvezda: Gent vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda

What was the score in Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?

Lugano 3-2 Crvena Zvezda (half-time 1-1), Europa Conference League, Thursday 15 October 2026.

Who scored in Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?

Albian Ajeti 25', Timi Max Elsnik 32', Rade Krunic 67', Dereck Moncada 84', Anto Grgic 89'.

Did Moneyball predict Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda correctly?

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 45%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 3-2.

Who was man of the match in Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?

Timi Max Elsnik, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?

F. Badstübner.