LOSC Lille 1-1 Brest: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 7 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · referee C. Turpin · full time
Full time: LOSC Lille 1-1 Brest
LOSC Lille and Brest drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 Matchday 7 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. The goals: Mama Baldé 6', Olivier Giroud 64'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had this exact score as the most likely.
How the match unfolded
Mama Baldé put Brest ahead in the 6th minute, set up by Gautier Lloris. LOSC Lille levelled at 1-1 in the 64th minute through Olivier Giroud from the penalty spot.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, C. Turpin, showed 3 yellow cards: 1 to LOSC Lille and 2 to Brest.
LOSC Lille: Davide Ancelotti, 4-2-3-1 · Brest: J. Lachuer, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Brest +0.50, was right: 1-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a LOSC Lille win at 42%; a draw, at 26%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%), exactly the final score.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 56%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 60%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a LOSC Lille win at 46%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.52 for LOSC Lille and 2.08 for Brest.
Brest left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Brest created the better chances, 2.08 xG to 0.52, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected LOSC Lille to create more, and Brest did.
LOSC Lille had 5 shots on target, Brest 2.
LOSC Lille had 67% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
LOSC Lille came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 1.18 expected goals for and 1.43 against, and had won 60% of their matches.
Brest came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.83 expected goals for and 1.27 against, and had won 40% of their matches.
LOSC Lille vs Brest: the match in numbers
| LOSC Lille | Match statistics | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 67% | Ball possession | 33% |
| 0.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 17 | Total shots | 8 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 3 | Big chances | 1 |
| 645 | Total passes | 320 |
| 91% | Pass accuracy | 78% |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 23 | Tackles | 19 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Maxima Goffi (LOSC Lille), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
LOSC Lille
- Maxima Goffi 7.7
- Olivier Giroud 7.2 1 goal
- Dilane Bakwa 7.2
- Ethan Mbappé 7.1
- Hákon Arnar Haraldsson 7.1
Brest
- Egil Selvik 7.3
- Lucas Tousart 7.0
- Joris Chotard 6.8
- Gautier Lloris 6.8 1 assist
- Kenny Lala 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Bradley Locko at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- LOSC Lille: LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
- Brest: Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about LOSC Lille vs Brest
What was the score in LOSC Lille vs Brest?
LOSC Lille 1-1 Brest (half-time 0-1), Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in LOSC Lille vs Brest?
Mama Baldé 6', Olivier Giroud 64'.
Did Moneyball predict LOSC Lille vs Brest correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Brest +0.50, was right: 1-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in LOSC Lille vs Brest?
Maxima Goffi, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed LOSC Lille vs Brest?
C. Turpin.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.