İstanbul Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Süper Lig Matchday 10 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul · referee O. Ergün · full time
Full time: İstanbul Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor
İstanbul Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 5-2 in Süper Lig Matchday 10 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. The goals: Eldor Shomurodov 10', Tanguy Coulibaly 22', Andreas Skov Olsen 25', Emin Bayram 41', Ousseynou Ba 75', Elayis Tavsan 84', Abbosbek Fayzullaev 90+1'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How İstanbul Başakşehir won it
Eldor Shomurodov put İstanbul Başakşehir ahead in the 10th minute, set up by Ivan Brnic. Samsunspor levelled at 1-1 in the 22nd minute through Tanguy Coulibaly, set up by Mohamed Bayo. Andreas Skov Olsen made it 2-1 to İstanbul Başakşehir in the 25th minute, set up by Saba Kharebashvili. Emin Bayram made it 3-1 to İstanbul Başakşehir in the 41st minute, set up by Jakub Kaluzinski. Ousseynou Ba made it 4-1 to İstanbul Başakşehir in the 75th minute, set up by Jakub Kaluzinski. Elayis Tavsan made it 4-2 to Samsunspor in the 84th minute, set up by Jaurès Assoumou. Abbosbek Fayzullaev made it 5-2 to İstanbul Başakşehir in the 90th minute (+1), set up by Saba Kharebashvili.
It was 3-1 at half-time.
The referee, O. Ergün, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to İstanbul Başakşehir and 2 to Samsunspor.
İstanbul Başakşehir: N. Şahin, 4-2-3-1 · Samsunspor: N. Bjelica, 3-5-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Istanbul Basaksehir Win, and on 5-2 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a İstanbul Başakşehir win at 59%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 62%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 60%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a İstanbul Başakşehir win at 51%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.51 for İstanbul Başakşehir and 3.63 for Samsunspor.
İstanbul Başakşehir scored about 4.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Samsunspor left about 1.6 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Samsunspor created the better chances, 3.63 xG to 0.51, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected İstanbul Başakşehir to create more, and Samsunspor did.
İstanbul Başakşehir had 10 shots on target, Samsunspor 4.
Samsunspor's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
İstanbul Başakşehir had 60% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
İstanbul Başakşehir came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.71 expected goals for and 1.52 against, and had won 45% of their matches.
Samsunspor came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.4 a match, with 1.13 expected goals for and 1.59 against, and had won 18% of their matches.
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: the match in numbers
| İstanbul Başakşehir | Match statistics | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | Ball possession | 40% |
| 0.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.63 |
| 24 | Total shots | 9 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 9 | Big chances | 1 |
| 522 | Total passes | 363 |
| 85% | Pass accuracy | 78% |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 10 | Tackles | 15 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Jakub Kaluzinski (İstanbul Başakşehir), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.
İstanbul Başakşehir
- Jakub Kaluzinski 8.5 2 assists
- Emin Bayram 7.7 1 goal
- Saba Kharebashvili 7.6 2 assists
- Ivan Brnic 7.5 1 assist
- Yusuf Sarı 7.5
Samsunspor
- Tanguy Coulibaly 7.3 1 goal
- Elayis Tavsan 7.1 1 goal
- Jaurès Assoumou 7.1 1 assist
- Mohamed Bayo 7.1 1 assist
- Oskar Øhlenschlæger 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Muhammed Şengezer at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- İstanbul Başakşehir: İstanbul Başakşehir vs Çorum FK Monday 23 November 2026 · Süper Lig
- Samsunspor: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor Saturday 21 November 2026 · Süper Lig
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
What was the score in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
İstanbul Başakşehir 5-2 Samsunspor (half-time 3-1), Süper Lig, Sunday 1 November 2026.
Who scored in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Eldor Shomurodov 10', Tanguy Coulibaly 22', Andreas Skov Olsen 25', Emin Bayram 41', Ousseynou Ba 75', Elayis Tavsan 84', Abbosbek Fayzullaev 90+1'.
Did Moneyball predict İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Istanbul Basaksehir Win, and on 5-2 it was right.
Who was man of the match in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
Jakub Kaluzinski, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
O. Ergün.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.