Galatasaray vs Samsunspor Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 12
Süper Lig · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Rams Park, İstanbul · updated 2026-11-13
Galatasaray welcome Samsunspor to Rams Park in İstanbul in Süper Lig Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Galatasaray have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 82% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 56% win rate. Samsunspor have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Galatasaray are clear favourites at 76%, with the draw at 15% and Samsunspor at 9%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.78, Samsunspor 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Galatasaray: form and key numbers
In style Galatasaray keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.06 a match created, 1.00 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.3).
- Shots: 21.4 a match, 7.5 on target.
- Possession: 59.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Samsunspor: form and key numbers
In style Samsunspor keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor: season averages side by side
| Galatasaray | Per match this season | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 2.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 1.00 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 21.4 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 7.5 | On target | 3.3 |
| 59.5 | Possession % | 52.9 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Galatasaray
- Rafael Leão LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 15% of his position)
- Gabriel Sara CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Samsunspor
- Celil Yüksel CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 35 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 16% of his position)
- Samed Onur CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 34 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 28% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Victor Osimhen
Victor Osimhen, 27 · Galatasaray · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 62
Victor Osimhen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Galatasaray in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shots and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 9.24 / 90 | 99% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 1.12 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected goals | 1.06 / 90 | 89% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.38 / 90 | 80% |
| Duels won | 6.32 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Victor Osimhen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Victor Osimhen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor prediction
Galatasaray should have more of the ball; Galatasaray work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.78 for Galatasaray and 0.90 for Samsunspor - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 56%. Galatasaray have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Galatasaray 3-1 Samsunspor
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor: what the numbers say
- 1. Galatasaray win, the likeliest result 76% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.68 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Süper Lig previews
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- Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Saturday 21 November 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Sunday 22 November 2026
- Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Sunday 22 November 2026
- Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- İstanbul Başakşehir vs Çorum FK Monday 23 November 2026
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor: questions and answers
When is Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 12.
Where is Galatasaray vs Samsunspor played?
At Rams Park, İstanbul, Galatasaray's home ground.
Who will win Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Galatasaray are the favourites: Galatasaray 76%, draw 15%, Samsunspor 9%. Our prediction is Galatasaray 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who is the player to watch in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Victor Osimhen of Galatasaray: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.