MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in Premier League Matchday 8 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Portman Road Stadium. The goals: Neco Williams 13', Julio Enciso 41'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had this exact score as the most likely.

How the match unfolded

Neco Williams put Nottingham Forest ahead in the 13th minute, set up by Daniel Muñoz. Ipswich Town levelled at 1-1 in the 41st minute through Julio Enciso.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, T. Bramall, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Ipswich Town and 1 to Nottingham Forest.

Ipswich Town: G. O'Neil, 4-2-3-1 · Nottingham Forest: O. Glasner, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Under 2.75, was right: 1-1 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Nottingham Forest win at 46%; a draw, at 25%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%), exactly the final score.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 59%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-23, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.65 for Ipswich Town and 0.64 for Nottingham Forest.

Ipswich Town scored about 1.7 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Ipswich Town created the better chances, 2.65 xG to 0.64, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Nottingham Forest to create more, and Ipswich Town did.

Ipswich Town had 3 shots on target, Nottingham Forest 5.

Nottingham Forest had 51% of the ball.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Ipswich Town came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.21 expected goals for and 1.81 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Nottingham Forest came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 20% of their matches.

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest: the match in numbers

Ipswich TownMatch statisticsNottingham Forest
49%Ball possession51%
2.65Expected goals (xG)0.64
7Total shots17
3Shots on target5
1Big chances4
486Total passes480
79%Pass accuracy80%
0Corners5
9Fouls11
2Offsides1
15Tackles22
3Saves2
1Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Julio Enciso (Ipswich Town), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Ipswich Town

Nottingham Forest

The lowest-rated starter was Abdul Fatawu Issahaku at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

What was the score in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest (half-time 1-1), Premier League, Friday 23 October 2026.

Who scored in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Neco Williams 13', Julio Enciso 41'.

Did Moneyball predict Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest correctly?

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Under 2.75, was right: 1-1 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

Julio Enciso, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?

T. Bramall.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.