Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Hamburger SV won it

Hamburger SV struck first through Miro Muheim in the 88th minute, set up by Zakaria El Ouahdi. There was no time to answer it.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, R. Hartmann, showed 3 yellow cards: 3 to Hamburger SV and 0 to VfB Stuttgart.

Hamburger SV: M. Polzin, 3-5-2 · VfB Stuttgart: S. Hoeneß, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Under 3.50, and 1-0 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a VfB Stuttgart win at 48%; a Hamburger SV win, at 29%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.3 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 64%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 65%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a VfB Stuttgart win at 50%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.29 for Hamburger SV and 0.99 for VfB Stuttgart.

Hamburger SV scored about 1.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected VfB Stuttgart to create more, and Hamburger SV did.

Hamburger SV had 3 shots on target, VfB Stuttgart 5.

Hamburger SV's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

VfB Stuttgart had 66% of the ball, but Hamburger SV took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Hamburger SV came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 44% of their matches.

VfB Stuttgart came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.93 expected goals for and 1.99 against, and had won 44% of their matches.

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Bilal El Khannouss (VfB Stuttgart), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Hamburger SV

• Sebastiaan Bornauw 7.9
• Miro Muheim 7.8 1 goal
• Daniel Heuer Fernandes 7.6
• Warmed Omari 7.6
• Martin Adeline 7.3

VfB Stuttgart

• Bilal El Khannouss 8.5
• Ramon Hendriks 7.4
• Finn Jeltsch 7.3
• Atakan Karazor 7.3
• Chris Führich 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Ermedin Demirovic at 5.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Hamburger SV: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
• VfB Stuttgart: Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

What was the score in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart (half-time 0-0), Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October 2026.

Who scored in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Miro Muheim 88'.

Did Moneyball predict Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Under 3.50, and 1-0 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Bilal El Khannouss, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

R. Hartmann.