Grêmio 2-0 Athletico PR: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 33 · Friday 30 October 2026 · Arena do Grêmio, Rio · referee A. Gomes Stefano · full time
Full time: Grêmio 2-0 Athletico PR
Grêmio won 2-0 at home to Athletico PR in Brasileirão Matchday 33 on Friday 30 October 2026. The goals: Marlon 39', Fabián Balbuena 52'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Grêmio won it
The opening goal came in the 39th minute: Marlon for Grêmio. Fabián Balbuena made it 2-0 to Grêmio in the 52nd minute, set up by Marlon.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, A. Gomes Stefano, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Grêmio and 3 to Athletico PR.
Grêmio: R. Portaluppi, 3-4-3 · Athletico PR: O. Hellmann, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Athletico PR win the likeliest outcome (44%), and a Grêmio win, at 29%, is what happened.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 57%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-29, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.62 for Grêmio and 1.45 for Athletico PR.
Athletico PR left about 1.4 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Grêmio had 5 shots on target, Athletico PR 4.
Athletico PR had 70% of the ball, but Grêmio took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Grêmio came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.93 against, and had won 26% of their matches.
Athletico PR came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.32 expected goals for and 1.56 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Grêmio vs Athletico PR: the match in numbers
| Grêmio | Match statistics | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | Ball possession | 70% |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 19 | Total shots | 16 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Big chances | 2 |
| 228 | Total passes | 541 |
| 74% | Pass accuracy | 90% |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 9 | Tackles | 19 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Marlon (Grêmio), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Grêmio
- Marlon 8.7 1 goal, 1 assist
- Weverton 7.8
- Fabián Balbuena 7.5 1 goal
- Carlos Vinícius 7.4
- Wallace 7.0
Athletico PR
- Luiz Gustavo 8.2
- Lucas Esquivel 7.0
- Leozinho 7.0
- Arthur Dias 6.9
- Juan Felipe Aguirre 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was José Enamorado at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Grêmio: Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Athletico PR: Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Grêmio vs Athletico PR
What was the score in Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Grêmio 2-0 Athletico PR (half-time 1-0), Brasileirão, Friday 30 October 2026.
Who scored in Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Marlon 39', Fabián Balbuena 52'.
Did Moneyball predict Grêmio vs Athletico PR correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Athletico PR win the likeliest outcome (44%), and a Grêmio win, at 29%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
Marlon, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Grêmio vs Athletico PR?
A. Gomes Stefano.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.