Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Süper Lig Matchday 9 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Rams Park, İstanbul · referee A. Karaoğlan · full time
Full time: Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe
Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe: Galatasaray took the points in Süper Lig Matchday 9 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Rams Park. The goals: Victor Osimhen 29', Victor Osimhen 44', İrfan Can Kahveci 62'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Galatasaray won it
Galatasaray struck first through Victor Osimhen in the 29th minute, set up by Barış Alper Yılmaz. Victor Osimhen made it 2-0 to Galatasaray in the 44th minute, set up by Davinson Sánchez. İrfan Can Kahveci made it 2-1 to Fenerbahçe in the 62nd minute, set up by Oğuz Aydın.
It was 2-0 at half-time.
Victor Osimhen scored twice.
Abdülkerim Bardakcı of Galatasaray was sent off in the 90th minute (+6). Archie Brown of Fenerbahçe was sent off in the 90th minute (+6). The referee, A. Karaoğlan, showed 10 yellow cards: 4 to Galatasaray and 6 to Fenerbahçe.
Galatasaray: O. Buruk, 4-2-3-1 · Fenerbahçe: İ. Kartal, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Fenerbahce +0.50, and on 2-1 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Galatasaray win at 48%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.2 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Galatasaray win at 45%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-26, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.49 for Galatasaray and 2.12 for Fenerbahçe.
Galatasaray scored about 1.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Fenerbahçe left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Fenerbahçe created the better chances, 2.12 xG to 0.49, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Galatasaray to create more, and Fenerbahçe did.
Galatasaray had 8 shots on target, Fenerbahçe 3.
Fenerbahçe's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Galatasaray had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Galatasaray came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 2.06 expected goals for and 1.00 against, and had won 82% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 2.09 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 55% of their matches.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: the match in numbers
| Galatasaray | Match statistics | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.12 |
| 23 | Total shots | 4 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Big chances | 2 |
| 430 | Total passes | 253 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 72% |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 14 | Tackles | 18 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Victor Osimhen (Galatasaray), rated 9.0 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Galatasaray
- Victor Osimhen 9.0 2 goals
- Davinson Sánchez 7.7 1 assist
- Barış Alper Yılmaz 7.5 1 assist
- Roland Sallai 7.4
- Aleksey Batrakov 7.3
Fenerbahçe
- Ederson 7.6
- İrfan Can Kahveci 7.5 1 goal
- N'Golo Kanté 6.8
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu 6.8
- Milan Škriniar 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Abdülkerim Bardakcı at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Galatasaray: Galatasaray vs Samsunspor Saturday 21 November 2026 · Süper Lig
- Fenerbahçe: Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Saturday 21 November 2026 · Süper Lig
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
What was the score in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe (half-time 2-0), Süper Lig, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Victor Osimhen 29', Victor Osimhen 44', İrfan Can Kahveci 62'.
Did Moneyball predict Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Fenerbahce +0.50, and on 2-1 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Victor Osimhen, rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
A. Karaoğlan.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.