FSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Werder Bremen won it

The opening goal came in the 7th minute: Niclas Füllkrug from the penalty spot for Werder Bremen. Niclas Füllkrug from the penalty spot made it 0-2 to Werder Bremen in the 25th minute. Anthony Caci made it 1-2 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 33rd minute, set up by Sheraldo Becker. Ludovit Reis made it 1-3 to Werder Bremen in the 61st minute, set up by Marco Grüll. Jae-sung Lee made it 2-3 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 63rd minute, set up by Anthony Caci.

It was 1-2 at half-time.

Niclas Füllkrug scored twice.

The referee, F. Badstübner, showed 5 yellow cards: 4 to FSV Mainz 05 and 1 to Werder Bremen.

FSV Mainz 05: U. Fischer, 3-5-2 · Werder Bremen: D. Thioune, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was FSV Mainz 05 Win, and on 2-3 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a FSV Mainz 05 win at 50%; a Werder Bremen win, at 27%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.3 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 64%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 64%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a FSV Mainz 05 win at 56%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.99 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.59 for Werder Bremen.

Werder Bremen made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.4 goals.

FSV Mainz 05 created the better chances, 2.99 xG to 1.59, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

FSV Mainz 05 had 8 shots on target, Werder Bremen 8.

FSV Mainz 05's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

FSV Mainz 05 had 54% of the ball, but Werder Bremen took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

FSV Mainz 05 came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.75 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Werder Bremen came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.63 expected goals for and 1.50 against, and had won 44% of their matches.

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Anthony Caci (FSV Mainz 05), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

FSV Mainz 05

• Anthony Caci 8.4 1 goal, 1 assist
• Jae-sung Lee 7.4 1 goal
• Sheraldo Becker 7.2 1 assist
• Alexander Schwolow 7.2
• Phillip Tietz 7.2

Werder Bremen

• Niclas Füllkrug 8.1 2 goals
• Karl Hein 7.8
• Ludovit Reis 7.5 1 goal
• Arthur 7.2
• Youri Regeer 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Olivier Deman at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
• Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

What was the score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

FSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen (half-time 1-2), Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October 2026.

Who scored in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Niclas Füllkrug 7', Niclas Füllkrug 25', Anthony Caci 33', Ludovit Reis 61', Jae-sung Lee 63'.

Did Moneyball predict FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was FSV Mainz 05 Win, and on 2-3 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Anthony Caci, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

F. Badstübner.