FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 5 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · Mewa Arena, Mainz · referee M. Burda · full time
Full time: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen took the points in Bundesliga Matchday 5 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Mewa Arena. The goals: Robert Andrich 5', Patrik Schick 9', Anthony Caci 33', Anthony Caci 42', Jarell Quansah 55', Moussa Diaby 65', Benedict Hollerbach 90+2'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Bayer 04 Leverkusen won it
The opening goal came in the 5th minute: Robert Andrich for Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Patrik Schick made it 0-2 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the 9th minute, set up by Aleix García. Anthony Caci made it 1-2 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 33rd minute. FSV Mainz 05 levelled at 2-2 in the 42nd minute through Anthony Caci, set up by Nadiem Amiri. Jarell Quansah made it 2-3 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the 55th minute. Moussa Diaby made it 2-4 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the 65th minute, set up by Afonso Moreira. Benedict Hollerbach made it 3-4 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 90th minute (+2).
It was 2-2 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Anthony Caci scored twice.
The referee, M. Burda, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to FSV Mainz 05 and 1 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
FSV Mainz 05: U. Fischer, 3-5-2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen: C. Martínez Novell, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a FSV Mainz 05 win the likeliest outcome (39%), and a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win, at 38%, is what happened.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.7 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 71%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 71%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 42%, a different lean from Moneyball's.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.02 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.73 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.3 goals.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FSV Mainz 05 to create more, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen did.
FSV Mainz 05 had 5 shots on target, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 53% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FSV Mainz 05 came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.75 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 2.00 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 56% of their matches.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: the match in numbers
| FSV Mainz 05 | Match statistics | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Ball possession | 53% |
| 2.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.73 |
| 23 | Total shots | 16 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 4 | Big chances | 6 |
| 438 | Total passes | 507 |
| 83% | Pass accuracy | 85% |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 19 | Tackles | 17 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Anthony Caci (FSV Mainz 05), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
FSV Mainz 05
- Anthony Caci 8.9 2 goals
- Nadiem Amiri 7.8 1 assist
- Sheraldo Becker 7.4
- Benedict Hollerbach 7.3 1 goal
- Phillip Tietz 6.9
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Robert Andrich 8.2 1 goal
- Patrik Schick 7.4 1 goal
- Moussa Diaby 7.4 1 goal
- Aleix García 7.4 1 assist
- Miguel Gutiérrez 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Fabio Gruber at 5.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
What was the score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (half-time 2-2), Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Robert Andrich 5', Patrik Schick 9', Anthony Caci 33', Anthony Caci 42', Jarell Quansah 55', Moussa Diaby 65', Benedict Hollerbach 90+2'.
Did Moneyball predict FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a FSV Mainz 05 win the likeliest outcome (39%), and a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win, at 38%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Anthony Caci, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
M. Burda.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.