Fluminense 2-1 Internacional: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 33 · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · referee Lucas Casagrande · full time
Full time: Fluminense 2-1 Internacional
Fluminense 2-1 Internacional: Fluminense took the points in Brasileirão Matchday 33 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. The goals: Alan Patrick 46', Hércules 78', Luciano Acosta 90+7'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Fluminense won it
Alan Patrick put Internacional ahead in the 46th minute, set up by Matheus Bahia. Fluminense levelled at 1-1 in the 78th minute through Hércules. Fluminense turned it round: Luciano Acosta made it 2-1 in the 90th minute (+7). There was no time to answer it.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, Lucas Casagrande, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Fluminense and 2 to Internacional.
Fluminense: M. De Oliveira, 4-2-3-1 · Internacional: E. Baptista, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Fluminense -0.50, and 2-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Fluminense win at 52%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.7 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 51%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 53%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-28, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.96 for Fluminense and 1.58 for Internacional.
Fluminense scored about 1.0 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Fluminense to create more, and Internacional did.
Fluminense had 6 shots on target, Internacional 5.
Fluminense had 76% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Fluminense came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.39 expected goals for and 1.40 against, and had won 47% of their matches.
Internacional came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.37 expected goals for and 1.45 against, and had won 26% of their matches.
Fluminense vs Internacional: the match in numbers
| Fluminense | Match statistics | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| 76% | Ball possession | 24% |
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.58 |
| 16 | Total shots | 13 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Big chances | 2 |
| 771 | Total passes | 233 |
| 91% | Pass accuracy | 70% |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 16 | Tackles | 7 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Alan Patrick (Internacional), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Fluminense
- Hércules 8.0 1 goal
- Guga 7.7
- Luciano Acosta 7.6 1 goal
- Fábio 7.3
- Nonato 7.2
Internacional
- Alan Patrick 8.6 1 goal
- Matheus Bahia 7.5 1 assist
- Kauan 7.0
- Vitinho 6.9
- Braian Aguirre 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Guillermo Maripán at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Fluminense: São Paulo vs Fluminense Friday 20 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Internacional: Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Fluminense vs Internacional
What was the score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense 2-1 Internacional (half-time 0-0), Brasileirão, Wednesday 28 October 2026.
Who scored in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Alan Patrick 46', Hércules 78', Luciano Acosta 90+7'.
Did Moneyball predict Fluminense vs Internacional correctly?
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Fluminense -0.50, and 2-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Alan Patrick, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Fluminense vs Internacional?
Lucas Casagrande.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.