Flamengo 3-1 Grêmio: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 34 · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · referee P. Zanovelli · full time
Full time: Flamengo 3-1 Grêmio
Flamengo won 3-1 at home to Grêmio in Brasileirão Matchday 34 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. The goals: Samuel Lino 20', Pedro 28', Pedro 45+2', Francis Amuzu 69'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Flamengo won it
The opening goal came in the 20th minute: Samuel Lino for Flamengo. Pedro made it 2-0 to Flamengo in the 28th minute, set up by Jorge Carrascal. Pedro made it 3-0 to Flamengo in the 45th minute (+2). Francis Amuzu made it 3-1 to Grêmio in the 69th minute.
It was 3-0 at half-time.
Pedro scored twice.
The referee, P. Zanovelli, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to Flamengo and 2 to Grêmio.
Flamengo: J. Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim, 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio: R. Portaluppi, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.50, and on 3-1 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Flamengo win at 78%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (10%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.6 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 69%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 53%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Flamengo win at 77%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-03, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.40 for Flamengo and 2.17 for Grêmio.
Flamengo scored about 2.6 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Grêmio left about 1.2 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Grêmio created the better chances, 2.17 xG to 0.40, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Flamengo to create more, and Grêmio did.
Flamengo had 8 shots on target, Grêmio 4.
Grêmio's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Flamengo had 54% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Flamengo came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.78 expected goals for and 0.95 against, and had won 68% of their matches.
Grêmio came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.93 against, and had won 26% of their matches.
Flamengo vs Grêmio: the match in numbers
| Flamengo | Match statistics | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| 54% | Ball possession | 46% |
| 0.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.17 |
| 17 | Total shots | 7 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 6 | Big chances | 0 |
| 630 | Total passes | 550 |
| 92% | Pass accuracy | 90% |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 25 | Tackles | 18 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Pedro (Flamengo), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Flamengo
- Pedro 8.9 2 goals
- Jorge Carrascal 7.6 1 assist
- Giorgian de Arrascaeta 7.4
- Samuel Lino 7.2 1 goal
- Léo Pereira 7.2
Grêmio
- Francis Amuzu 7.5 1 goal
- Erick Noriega 7.0
- Gabriel Grando 6.9
- Dodi 6.8
- Martin Braithwaite 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Marcos Rocha at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Flamengo: Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Grêmio: Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Flamengo vs Grêmio
What was the score in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Flamengo 3-1 Grêmio (half-time 3-0), Brasileirão, Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Who scored in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Samuel Lino 20', Pedro 28', Pedro 45+2', Francis Amuzu 69'.
Did Moneyball predict Flamengo vs Grêmio correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.50, and on 3-1 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Pedro, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Flamengo vs Grêmio?
P. Zanovelli.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.