Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Elversberg won it

Felix Keidel put Elversberg ahead in the 7th minute. Francis Onyeka made it 2-0 to Elversberg in the 26th minute, set up by David Mokwa. Maurice Krattenmacher made it 3-0 to Elversberg in the 45th minute (+1). Cole Campbell made it 4-0 to Elversberg in the 90th minute, set up by Nicholas Mickelson. Benedict Hollerbach made it 4-1 to FSV Mainz 05 in the 90th minute (+2).

It was 3-0 at half-time.

Stefan Posch of FSV Mainz 05 was sent off in the 90th minute (+5) for a second yellow card. The referee, S. Stegemann, showed 4 yellow cards: 0 to Elversberg and 4 to FSV Mainz 05.

Elversberg: V. Wagner, 4-2-3-1 · FSV Mainz 05: U. Fischer, 3-5-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.25, and on 4-1 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a FSV Mainz 05 win at 50%; an Elversberg win, at 28%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (9%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-30, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.71 for Elversberg and 1.23 for FSV Mainz 05.

Elversberg scored about 2.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FSV Mainz 05 to create more, and Elversberg did.

Elversberg had 6 shots on target, FSV Mainz 05 2.

Elversberg had 54% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Elversberg came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 2.23 against, and had won 44% of their matches.

FSV Mainz 05 came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.75 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Felix Keidel (Elversberg), rated 7.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Elversberg

• Felix Keidel 7.9 1 goal
• Maurice Krattenmacher 7.7 1 goal
• Francis Onyeka 7.6 1 goal
• Cole Campbell 7.4 1 goal
• Nicolas Kristof 6.9

FSV Mainz 05

• Benedict Hollerbach 7.2 1 goal
• Nadiem Amiri 7.1
• Anthony Caci 7.0
• Sheraldo Becker 6.8
• Phillip Tietz 6.6

The lowest-rated starter was Danny da Costa at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Elversberg: Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
• FSV Mainz 05: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

What was the score in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05 (half-time 3-0), Bundesliga, Friday 30 October 2026.

Who scored in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Felix Keidel 7', Francis Onyeka 26', Maurice Krattenmacher 45+1', Cole Campbell 90', Benedict Hollerbach 90+2'.

Did Moneyball predict Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.25, and on 4-1 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Felix Keidel, rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

S. Stegemann.