Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Premier League Matchday 6 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · Selhurst Park, London · referee P. Bankes · full time
Full time: Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace won 3-1 at home to Nottingham Forest in Premier League Matchday 6 on Sunday 11 October 2026. The goals: Dan Ndoye 3', Daichi Kamada 41', Jefferson Lerma 45+4', Yéremy Pino 59'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Crystal Palace won it
Nottingham Forest struck first through Dan Ndoye in the 3rd minute. Crystal Palace levelled at 1-1 in the 41st minute through Daichi Kamada, set up by Quinten Timber. Crystal Palace turned it round: Jefferson Lerma made it 2-1 in the 45th minute (+4), set up by Adam Wharton. Yéremy Pino made it 3-1 to Crystal Palace in the 59th minute.
It was 2-1 at half-time.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, P. Bankes, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Crystal Palace and 2 to Nottingham Forest.
Crystal Palace: P. Sage, 3-4-2-1 · Nottingham Forest: O. Glasner, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A miss for the model: 44% for a Nottingham Forest win, 29% for a Crystal Palace win, and football chose the second.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.7 goals and there were 4.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 51%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Nottingham Forest win at 36%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.57 for Crystal Palace and 2.25 for Nottingham Forest.
Nottingham Forest left about 1.3 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Crystal Palace had 7 shots on target, Nottingham Forest 6.
Nottingham Forest had 57% of the ball, but Crystal Palace took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Crystal Palace came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.4 a match, with 1.28 expected goals for and 2.42 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
Nottingham Forest came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: the match in numbers
| Crystal Palace | Match statistics | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 43% | Ball possession | 57% |
| 2.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.25 |
| 13 | Total shots | 24 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 5 | Big chances | 8 |
| 386 | Total passes | 498 |
| 75% | Pass accuracy | 82% |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 21 | Tackles | 13 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.
Crystal Palace
- Adam Wharton 7.7 1 assist
- Yéremy Pino 7.4 1 goal
- Tyrick Mitchell 7.4
- Daichi Kamada 7.4 1 goal
- Chris Richards 7.3
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White 7.4
- Murillo 7.2
- Neco Williams 7.1
- Dan Ndoye 7.0 1 goal
- Ibrahim Sangaré 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Liam Delap at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Crystal Palace: Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
- Nottingham Forest: AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
What was the score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest (half-time 2-1), Premier League, Sunday 11 October 2026.
Who scored in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Dan Ndoye 3', Daichi Kamada 41', Jefferson Lerma 45+4', Yéremy Pino 59'.
Did Moneyball predict Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest correctly?
A miss for the model: 44% for a Nottingham Forest win, 29% for a Crystal Palace win, and football chose the second.
Who was man of the match in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Adam Wharton, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
P. Bankes.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.