Coritiba 2-0 Vitória: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 33 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · referee J. Pinheiro · full time
Full time: Coritiba 2-0 Vitória
Coritiba 2-0 Vitória: Coritiba took the points in Brasileirão Matchday 33 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. The goals: Pedro Rocha 58', Tinga 69'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Coritiba won it
Pedro Rocha put Coritiba ahead in the 58th minute. Tinga made it 2-0 to Coritiba in the 69th minute, set up by Tiago Cóser.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, J. Pinheiro, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Coritiba and 1 to Vitória.
Coritiba: J. de Amorim Campos, 4-2-3-1 · Vitória: J. Ribeiro Ventura, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call on the result: 39% for a Coritiba win before the match. The scoreline, 2-0, was not the estimate's first choice (2-1).
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.6 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 48%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 53%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.40 for Coritiba and 2.45 for Vitória.
Coritiba scored about 1.6 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Vitória left about 2.5 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Vitória created the better chances, 2.45 xG to 0.40, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Coritiba to create more, and Vitória did.
Coritiba had 7 shots on target, Vitória 1.
Vitória's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Vitória had 51% of the ball, but Coritiba took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Coritiba came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.09 expected goals for and 1.74 against, and had won 32% of their matches.
Vitória came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.01 expected goals for and 1.60 against, and had won 29% of their matches.
Coritiba vs Vitória: the match in numbers
| Coritiba | Match statistics | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Ball possession | 51% |
| 0.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.45 |
| 20 | Total shots | 7 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 6 | Big chances | 2 |
| 403 | Total passes | 436 |
| 83% | Pass accuracy | 83% |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 13 | Tackles | 13 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Josué (Coritiba), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Coritiba
- Josué 8.2
- Tinga 7.9 1 goal
- Tiago Cóser 7.4 1 assist
- Thiago Santos 7.2
- Breno Lopes 7.2
Vitória
- Zé Vitor 7.2
- Lucas Arcanjo 7.2
- Gean de Jesus Soares 7.1
- Emmanuel Martínez 6.9
- Diego Tarzia 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Cacá at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Coritiba: Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Vitória: Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Coritiba vs Vitória
What was the score in Coritiba vs Vitória?
Coritiba 2-0 Vitória (half-time 0-0), Brasileirão, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Coritiba vs Vitória?
Pedro Rocha 58', Tinga 69'.
Did Moneyball predict Coritiba vs Vitória correctly?
A correct call on the result: 39% for a Coritiba win before the match. The scoreline, 2-0, was not the estimate's first choice (2-1).
Who was man of the match in Coritiba vs Vitória?
Josué, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Coritiba vs Vitória?
J. Pinheiro.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.