Celta de Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
La Liga Matchday 9 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo · referee J. Munuera Montero · full time
Full time: Celta de Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés
Celta de Vigo won 2-1 at home to Deportivo Alavés in La Liga Matchday 9 on Sunday 18 October 2026. The goals: Ferran Jutglà 53', Javi Rodríguez 71', Hugo Novoa 87'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Celta de Vigo won it
Celta de Vigo struck first through Ferran Jutglà in the 53rd minute, set up by Javi Rodríguez. Javi Rodríguez made it 2-0 to Celta de Vigo in the 71st minute, set up by Iago Aspas. Hugo Novoa made it 2-1 to Deportivo Alavés in the 87th minute, set up by Mariano Díaz.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, J. Munuera Montero, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Celta de Vigo and 1 to Deportivo Alavés.
Celta de Vigo: C. Giráldez González, 3-4-3 · Deportivo Alavés: E. Sánchez Flores, 5-3-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Alaves +0.50, and on 2-1 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Celta de Vigo win at 43%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (14%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.4 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 43%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 49%; both did, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Celta de Vigo win at 45%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.42 for Celta de Vigo and 0.86 for Deportivo Alavés.
Celta de Vigo had 3 shots on target, Deportivo Alavés 9.
Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper made 8 saves.
Deportivo Alavés had 52% of the ball, but Celta de Vigo took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Celta de Vigo came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.16 against, and had won 17% of their matches.
Deportivo Alavés came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.15 expected goals for and 1.41 against, and had won 25% of their matches.
Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés: the match in numbers
| Celta de Vigo | Match statistics | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Ball possession | 52% |
| 1.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.86 |
| 6 | Total shots | 20 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 1 | Big chances | 2 |
| 471 | Total passes | 491 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 81% |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 15 | Tackles | 12 |
| 8 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Javi Rodríguez (Celta de Vigo), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Celta de Vigo
- Javi Rodríguez 8.3 1 goal, 1 assist
- Ionuț Radu 8.3
- Sebastián Cáceres 7.6
- Ferran Jutglà 7.5 1 goal
- Couhaib Driouech 7.1
Deportivo Alavés
- Antonio Blanco 7.5
- Hugo Novoa 7.4 1 goal
- Pablo Ibáñez 7.3
- Lucas Boyé 7.0
- Mariano Díaz 6.8 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Antonio Sivera at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Celta de Vigo: Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
- Deportivo Alavés: Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés
What was the score in Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
Celta de Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés (half-time 0-0), La Liga, Sunday 18 October 2026.
Who scored in Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
Ferran Jutglà 53', Javi Rodríguez 71', Hugo Novoa 87'.
Did Moneyball predict Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Alaves +0.50, and on 2-1 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
Javi Rodríguez, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
J. Munuera Montero.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.