Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Cagliari won it

Michel Adopo put Cagliari ahead in the 38th minute, set up by Paul Mendy.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, G. Ayroldi, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Cagliari and 3 to Frosinone.

Cagliari: F. Pisacane, 4-3-3 · Frosinone: M. Alvini, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25, and on 1-0 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Frosinone win at 46%; a Cagliari win, at 31%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.4 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 66%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 67%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Frosinone win at 42%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.32 for Cagliari and 1.49 for Frosinone.

Cagliari scored about 1.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Frosinone left about 1.5 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Frosinone to create more, and Cagliari did.

Cagliari had 4 shots on target, Frosinone 9.

Cagliari's goalkeeper made 9 saves.

Frosinone had 64% of the ball, but Cagliari took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Cagliari came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.17 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Frosinone came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.90 expected goals for and 2.11 against, and had won 55% of their matches.

Cagliari vs Frosinone: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Elia Caprile (Cagliari), rated 9.3 by Sportmonks.

Cagliari

• Elia Caprile 9.3
• Alessandro Romano 7.3
• Paul Mendy 7.3 1 assist
• Michel Adopo 7.3 1 goal
• Raphael Kofler 7.2

Frosinone

• Giacomo Calò 8.7
• Matteo Cichella 7.5
• Daniel Bîrligea 7.5
• Farès Ghedjemis 7.5
• Ilario Monterisi 7.5

The lowest-rated starter was Nicola Grandu at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Cagliari: Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A
• Frosinone: AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Cagliari vs Frosinone

What was the score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone (half-time 1-0), Serie A, Saturday 7 November 2026.

Who scored in Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Michel Adopo 38'.

Did Moneyball predict Cagliari vs Frosinone correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25, and on 1-0 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Elia Caprile, rated 9.3 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Cagliari vs Frosinone?

G. Ayroldi.