Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Premier League Matchday 9 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford · referee D. England · full time
Full time: Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest
Brentford won 2-0 at home to Nottingham Forest in Premier League Matchday 9 on Saturday 31 October 2026. The goals: Igor Thiago 76'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Brentford won it
The opening goal came in the 30th minute: an own goal by Nikola Milenković for Brentford. Igor Thiago made it 2-0 to Brentford in the 76th minute, set up by Jaidon Anthony.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, D. England, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Brentford and 3 to Nottingham Forest.
Brentford: K. Andrews, 4-3-3 · Nottingham Forest: O. Glasner, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 2-0 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Brentford win at 43%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 57%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 60%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Brentford win at 46%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.08 for Brentford and 0.73 for Nottingham Forest.
Brentford had 1 shot on target, Nottingham Forest 1.
Nottingham Forest had 58% of the ball, but Brentford took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Brentford came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 1.58 expected goals for and 1.62 against, and had won 30% of their matches.
Nottingham Forest came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: the match in numbers
| Brentford | Match statistics | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Ball possession | 58% |
| 1.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.73 |
| 7 | Total shots | 15 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 1 | Big chances | 1 |
| 346 | Total passes | 489 |
| 71% | Pass accuracy | 77% |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 20 | Tackles | 18 |
| 1 | Saves | 0 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Sepp van den Berg (Brentford), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Brentford
- Sepp van den Berg 7.6
- Igor Thiago 7.6 1 goal
- Mamadou Sangaré 7.3
- Vitaly Janelt 7.2
- Kristoffer Ajer 7.2
Nottingham Forest
- James McAtee 7.1
- Murillo 7.1
- Jair Cunha 6.8
- Daniel Muñoz 6.8
- Morgan Gibbs-White 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Xaver Schlager at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Brentford: Brentford vs Everton Monday 23 November 2026 · Premier League
- Nottingham Forest: AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
What was the score in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest (half-time 1-0), Premier League, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Igor Thiago 76'.
Did Moneyball predict Brentford vs Nottingham Forest correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 2-0 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Sepp van den Berg, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
D. England.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.