Bologna 2-1 Monza: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Bologna won it

The opening goal came in the 6th minute: Gustavo Varela from the penalty spot for Monza. Bologna levelled at 1-1 in the 33rd minute through Tommaso Pobega, set up by Juan Miranda. Bologna turned it round: Federico Bernardeschi from the penalty spot made it 2-1 in the 59th minute.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, A. Zanotti, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Bologna and 3 to Monza. Patrick Cutrone missed a penalty for Monza in the 81 minute.

Bologna: R. Palladino, 3-4-2-1 · Monza: I. Juric, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Bologna Win, and 2-1 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Bologna win at 51%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Bologna win at 52%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.83 for Bologna and 2.22 for Monza.

Monza left about 1.2 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Bologna had 5 shots on target, Monza 4.

Bologna had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Bologna came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.63 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Monza came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.51 expected goals for and 1.55 against, and had won 18% of their matches.

Bologna vs Monza: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Juan Miranda (Bologna), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.

Bologna

• Juan Miranda 8.0 1 assist
• Nicolò Cambiaghi 7.1
• Lukasz Skorupski 7.1
• Nicolò Casale 7.0
• Tommaso Pobega 7.0 1 goal

Monza

• Samuele Birindelli 7.0
• Dany Mota 7.0
• Ricardo Mangas 6.9
• Saba Goglichidze 6.8
• Gustavo Varela 6.8 1 goal

The lowest-rated starter was Nadir Zortea at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Bologna: Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
• Monza: Monza vs Fiorentina Monday 23 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Bologna vs Monza

What was the score in Bologna vs Monza?

Bologna 2-1 Monza (half-time 1-1), Serie A, Saturday 31 October 2026.

Who scored in Bologna vs Monza?

Gustavo Varela 6', Tommaso Pobega 33', Federico Bernardeschi 59'.

Did Moneyball predict Bologna vs Monza correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Bologna Win, and 2-1 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Bologna vs Monza?

Juan Miranda, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Bologna vs Monza?

A. Zanotti.