Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Boca Juniors won it

Lautaro Di Lollo put Boca Juniors ahead in the 27th minute, set up by Sebastián Villa.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

Lucas Martínez Quarta of River Plate was sent off in the 10th minute. Gonzalo Montiel of River Plate was sent off in the 79th minute. The referee, N. Ramírez, showed 10 yellow cards: 7 to Boca Juniors and 3 to River Plate.

Boca Juniors: R. Arruabarrena, 4-3-3 · River Plate: L. Ponzio, 4-3-1-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was River Plate +0.25, and on 1-0 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Boca Juniors win at 45%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-0 (14%), exactly the final score.

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.2 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 38%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 44%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Boca Juniors win at 42%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.17 for Boca Juniors and 1.79 for River Plate.

River Plate left about 1.8 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

River Plate created the better chances, 1.79 xG to 0.17, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Boca Juniors to create more, and River Plate did.

Boca Juniors had 6 shots on target, River Plate 0.

River Plate's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Boca Juniors had 71% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Boca Juniors came into it with 33 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.52 expected goals for and 0.79 against, and had won 52% of their matches.

River Plate came into it with 36 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.66 expected goals for and 0.74 against, and had won 53% of their matches.

Boca Juniors vs River Plate: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Lautaro Di Lollo (Boca Juniors), rated 7.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Boca Juniors

• Lautaro Di Lollo 7.9 1 goal
• Santiago Ascacíbar 7.6
• Leandro Paredes 7.5
• Sebastián Villa 7.5 1 assist
• Milton Delgado 6.9

River Plate

• Santiago Beltrán 7.1
• Lautaro Rivero 6.7
• Tobías Andrada 6.7
• Nicolás Otamendi 6.7
• Tomás Galván 6.6

The lowest-rated starter was Lucas Martínez Quarta at 5.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Boca Juniors: Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Thursday 26 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina
• River Plate: River Plate vs Lanús Sunday 22 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Boca Juniors vs River Plate

What was the score in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate (half-time 1-0), Liga Profesional Argentina, Sunday 1 November 2026.

Who scored in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Lautaro Di Lollo 27'.

Did Moneyball predict Boca Juniors vs River Plate correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was River Plate +0.25, and on 1-0 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Lautaro Di Lollo, rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

N. Ramírez.