Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 15 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham · referee A. Backhouse · full time
Full time: Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City
Birmingham City won 2-1 at home to Swansea City in Championship Matchday 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026. The goals: Jay Stansfield 29', Jay Stansfield 87'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Birmingham City won it
Birmingham City struck first through Jay Stansfield in the 29th minute, set up by Max Bird. Swansea City levelled at 1-1 in the 65th minute through an own goal by Christoph Klarer. Jay Stansfield made it 2-1 to Birmingham City in the 87th minute.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
Jay Stansfield scored twice.
Marko Stamenić of Swansea City was sent off in the 26th minute. The referee, A. Backhouse, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Birmingham City and 3 to Swansea City. Ross Stewart missed a penalty for Swansea City in the 12 minute.
Birmingham City: C. Davies, 4-2-3-1 · Swansea City: V. Emanuel Soares Matos, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Birmingham City -0.50, was right: 2-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Birmingham City win at 50%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 57%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Birmingham City win at 49%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.20 for Birmingham City and 3.60 for Swansea City.
Swansea City left about 2.6 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Swansea City created the better chances, 3.60 xG to 1.20, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Birmingham City to create more, and Swansea City did.
Birmingham City had 8 shots on target, Swansea City 3.
Swansea City's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Birmingham City had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Birmingham City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.89 expected goals for and 1.37 against, and had won 53% of their matches.
Swansea City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.58 expected goals for and 1.48 against, and had won 53% of their matches.
Birmingham City vs Swansea City: the match in numbers
| Birmingham City | Match statistics | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Ball possession | 41% |
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.60 |
| 21 | Total shots | 8 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 8 | Big chances | 1 |
| 475 | Total passes | 338 |
| 79% | Pass accuracy | 67% |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 12 | Tackles | 17 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Jay Stansfield (Birmingham City), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Birmingham City
- Jay Stansfield 8.1 2 goals
- Liam Millar 7.5
- Max Bird 7.3 1 assist
- Ryan Allsop 7.1
- Phil Neumann 7.1
Swansea City
- Lawrence Vigouroux 7.6
- Jenson Seelt 7.1
- Gonçalo Franco 7.0
- Moussa Yeo 6.9
- Ji-sung Eom 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Marko Stamenić at 4.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Birmingham City: Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Swansea City: Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Birmingham City vs Swansea City
What was the score in Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Birmingham City 2-1 Swansea City (half-time 1-0), Championship, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Jay Stansfield 29', Jay Stansfield 87'.
Did Moneyball predict Birmingham City vs Swansea City correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Birmingham City -0.50, was right: 2-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
Jay Stansfield, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Birmingham City vs Swansea City?
A. Backhouse.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.