FC Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Champions League Matchday 3 · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · Allianz Arena, Munich · referee D. Massa · full time
Full time: FC Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal
FC Bayern München and Arsenal drew 2-2 in Champions League Matchday 3 on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Allianz Arena. The goals: Eberechi Eze 25', Alphonso Davies 35', Harry Kane 61', Declan Rice 82'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
Arsenal struck first through Eberechi Eze in the 25th minute, set up by Martin Ødegaard. FC Bayern München levelled at 1-1 in the 35th minute through Alphonso Davies, set up by Harry Kane. FC Bayern München turned it round: Harry Kane from the penalty spot made it 2-1 in the 61st minute. Arsenal levelled at 2-2 in the 82nd minute through Declan Rice, set up by Viktor Gyökeres.
It was 1-1 at half-time.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, D. Massa, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to FC Bayern München and 2 to Arsenal.
FC Bayern München: V. Kompany, 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal: M. Arteta, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A miss for the model: 44% for a FC Bayern München win, 25% for a draw, and football chose the second. At 25%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 59%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 62%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a FC Bayern München win at 42%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-21, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
FC Bayern München had 5 shots on target, Arsenal 5.
Arsenal had 54% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FC Bayern München came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.57 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Arsenal came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 2.29 expected goals for and – against, and had won 75% of their matches.
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal: the match in numbers
| FC Bayern München | Match statistics | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Ball possession | 54% |
| 13 | Total shots | 14 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Big chances | 3 |
| 434 | Total passes | 506 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 87% |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 15 | Tackles | 16 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Declan Rice (Arsenal), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
FC Bayern München
- Harry Kane 8.0 1 goal, 1 assist
- Alphonso Davies 7.2 1 goal
- Tom Bischof 7.1
- Dayot Upamecano 7.1
- Aleksandar Pavlovic 6.9
Arsenal
- Declan Rice 8.1 1 goal
- Eberechi Eze 7.5 1 goal
- Martin Ødegaard 7.5 1 assist
- Bruno Guimarães 7.1
- Noni Madueke 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Konrad Laimer at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- Arsenal: Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FC Bayern München vs Arsenal
What was the score in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
FC Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal (half-time 1-1), Champions League, Wednesday 21 October 2026.
Who scored in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Eberechi Eze 25', Alphonso Davies 35', Harry Kane 61', Declan Rice 82'.
Did Moneyball predict FC Bayern München vs Arsenal correctly?
A miss for the model: 44% for a FC Bayern München win, 25% for a draw, and football chose the second. At 25%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.
Who was man of the match in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Declan Rice, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
D. Massa.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.