Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 8 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · BayArena, Leverkusen · referee B. Brand · full time
Full time: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart beat Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2 in Bundesliga Matchday 8 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at BayArena. The goals: Ermedin Demirovic 14', Jamie Leweling 22', Patrik Schick 28', Bilal El Khannouss 51', Ermedin Demirovic 65', Ibrahim Maza 79'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How VfB Stuttgart won it
Ermedin Demirovic put VfB Stuttgart ahead in the 14th minute, set up by Bilal El Khannouss. Jamie Leweling made it 0-2 to VfB Stuttgart in the 22nd minute, set up by Grischa Prömel. Patrik Schick made it 1-2 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the 28th minute, set up by Aleix García. Bilal El Khannouss made it 1-3 to VfB Stuttgart in the 51st minute, set up by Chris Führich. Ermedin Demirovic made it 1-4 to VfB Stuttgart in the 65th minute, set up by Deniz Undav. Ibrahim Maza made it 2-4 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the 79th minute, set up by Miguel Gutiérrez.
It was 1-2 at half-time.
Ermedin Demirovic scored twice.
The referee, B. Brand, showed 9 yellow cards: 5 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 4 to VfB Stuttgart.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: C. Martínez Novell, 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart: S. Hoeneß, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.50, and on 2-4 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 46%; a VfB Stuttgart win, at 32%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-1 (8%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 4.0 goals and there were 6.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 74%; with 6 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 75%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 49%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.44 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 2.29 for VfB Stuttgart.
VfB Stuttgart made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.7 goals.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 8 shots on target, VfB Stuttgart 7.
VfB Stuttgart's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 63% of the ball, but VfB Stuttgart took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Bayer 04 Leverkusen came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 2.00 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 56% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.93 expected goals for and 1.99 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: the match in numbers
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Match statistics | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 63% | Ball possession | 37% |
| 2.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.29 |
| 24 | Total shots | 15 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 4 | Big chances | 5 |
| 527 | Total passes | 327 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 72% |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 13 | Tackles | 16 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ermedin Demirovic (VfB Stuttgart), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Ibrahim Maza 7.7 1 goal
- Patrik Schick 7.5 1 goal
- Aleix García 7.4 1 assist
- Afonso Moreira 7.2
- Facundo Medina 7.0
VfB Stuttgart
- Ermedin Demirovic 8.5 2 goals
- Bilal El Khannouss 7.7 1 goal, 1 assist
- Jamie Leweling 7.4 1 goal
- Dennis Seimen 7.3
- Deniz Undav 7.3 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Mark Flekken at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- VfB Stuttgart: Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
What was the score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart (half-time 1-2), Bundesliga, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Ermedin Demirovic 14', Jamie Leweling 22', Patrik Schick 28', Bilal El Khannouss 51', Ermedin Demirovic 65', Ibrahim Maza 79'.
Did Moneyball predict Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.50, and on 2-4 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Ermedin Demirovic, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
B. Brand.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.