Bahia 3-2 São Paulo: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Bahia won it

Rodrigo Nestor put Bahia ahead in the 6th minute, set up by Jean Lucas. Erick Pulga made it 2-0 to Bahia in the 10th minute, set up by Marcos Victor. Lucas Moura made it 2-1 to São Paulo in the 43rd minute, set up by Jonathan Calleri. São Paulo levelled at 2-2 in the 45th minute (+5) through Damián Bobadilla, set up by Jonathan Calleri. Marcos Victor made it 3-2 to Bahia in the 81st minute, set up by Erick.

It was 2-2 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, A. Daronco, showed 6 yellow cards: 2 to Bahia and 4 to São Paulo.

Bahia: R. Mücke Ceni, 5-3-2 · São Paulo: D. Silvestre Júnior, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 2.50, was right: 3-2 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Bahia win at 46%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.0 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 57%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 60%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Bahia win at 44%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-28, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.95 for Bahia and 1.33 for São Paulo.

Bahia scored about 2.0 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Bahia had 4 shots on target, São Paulo 6.

São Paulo had 54% of the ball, but Bahia took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Bahia came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.54 expected goals for and 1.67 against, and had won 41% of their matches.

São Paulo came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 1.45 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 35% of their matches.

Bahia vs São Paulo: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Marcos Victor (Bahia), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Bahia

• Marcos Victor 8.6 1 goal, 1 assist
• Erick 7.3 1 assist
• Rodrigo Nestor 7.3 1 goal
• Erick Pulga 7.0 1 goal
• Ronaldo 7.0

São Paulo

• Pedro Lima 7.5
• Lucas Moura 7.4 1 goal
• Damián Bobadilla 7.4 1 goal
• Jonathan Calleri 7.1 2 assists
• Luciano 7.0

The lowest-rated starter was Rafael at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Bahia: Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
• São Paulo: São Paulo vs Fluminense Friday 20 November 2026 · Brasileirão

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Bahia vs São Paulo

What was the score in Bahia vs São Paulo?

Bahia 3-2 São Paulo (half-time 2-2), Brasileirão, Thursday 29 October 2026.

Who scored in Bahia vs São Paulo?

Rodrigo Nestor 6', Erick Pulga 10', Lucas Moura 43', Damián Bobadilla 45+5', Marcos Victor 81'.

Did Moneyball predict Bahia vs São Paulo correctly?

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 2.50, was right: 3-2 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Bahia vs São Paulo?

Marcos Victor, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Bahia vs São Paulo?

A. Daronco.