AZ Alkmaar 4-3 FC Groningen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Eredivisie Matchday 12 · Sunday 8 November 2026 · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · referee J. van der Laan · full time
Full time: AZ Alkmaar 4-3 FC Groningen
AZ Alkmaar 4-3 FC Groningen: AZ Alkmaar took the points in Eredivisie Matchday 12 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at AFAS Stadion. The goals: Jacob Ondrejka 2', Mexx Meerdink 9', Brynjólfur Willumsson 47', Thom van Bergen 54', Ayoub Oufkir 61', Mateo Chávez 76', Mexx Meerdink 90+1'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How AZ Alkmaar won it
The opening goal came in the 2nd minute: Jacob Ondrejka for FC Groningen. AZ Alkmaar levelled at 1-1 in the 9th minute through Mexx Meerdink, set up by Ro-Zangelo Daal. Brynjólfur Willumsson made it 1-2 to FC Groningen in the 47th minute, set up by Jacob Ondrejka. Thom van Bergen made it 1-3 to FC Groningen in the 54th minute. Ayoub Oufkir made it 2-3 to AZ Alkmaar in the 61st minute, set up by Mexx Meerdink. AZ Alkmaar levelled at 3-3 in the 76th minute through Mateo Chávez. AZ Alkmaar turned it round: Mexx Meerdink from the penalty spot made it 4-3 in the 90th minute (+1). It came late, and it settled the match.
FC Groningen led by two and lost: AZ Alkmaar came back to win it.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Mexx Meerdink scored twice.
The lead changed hands once.
Etienne Vaessen of FC Groningen was sent off in the 88th minute for a second yellow card. Hans Hateboer of FC Groningen was sent off in the 90th minute (+10). The referee, J. van der Laan, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to AZ Alkmaar and 3 to FC Groningen. Mexx Meerdink missed a penalty for AZ Alkmaar in the 59 minute.
AZ Alkmaar: L. Echteld, 4-2-3-1 · FC Groningen: D. Lukkien, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, AZ Alkmaar Win, was right: 4-3 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was an AZ Alkmaar win at 63%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-1 (9%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.8 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 72%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 67%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an AZ Alkmaar win at 63%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-08, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.81 for AZ Alkmaar and 3.35 for FC Groningen.
AZ Alkmaar scored about 2.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
FC Groningen created the better chances, 3.35 xG to 1.81, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected AZ Alkmaar to create more, and FC Groningen did.
AZ Alkmaar had 5 shots on target, FC Groningen 5.
AZ Alkmaar had 58% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
AZ Alkmaar came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.32 expected goals for and 1.22 against, and had won 58% of their matches.
FC Groningen came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.67 expected goals for and 2.08 against, and had won 33% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: the match in numbers
| AZ Alkmaar | Match statistics | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| 58% | Ball possession | 42% |
| 1.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.35 |
| 19 | Total shots | 9 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 8 | Big chances | 3 |
| 496 | Total passes | 358 |
| 81% | Pass accuracy | 72% |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 12 | Tackles | 10 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Mexx Meerdink (AZ Alkmaar), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals, 1 assist.
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink 8.6 2 goals, 1 assist
- Ayoub Oufkir 8.3 1 goal
- Ro-Zangelo Daal 7.5 1 assist
- Mateo Chávez 6.9 1 goal
- Wesley Hoedt 6.9
FC Groningen
- Jacob Ondrejka 7.7 1 goal, 1 assist
- Thom van Bergen 7.6 1 goal
- Brynjólfur Willumsson 7.3 1 goal
- Nils Eggens 6.6
- Tika de Jonge 6.4
The lowest-rated starter was Jari De Busser at 5.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- AZ Alkmaar: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026 · Eredivisie
- FC Groningen: FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Saturday 21 November 2026 · Eredivisie
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen
What was the score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar 4-3 FC Groningen (half-time 1-1), Eredivisie, Sunday 8 November 2026.
Who scored in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
Jacob Ondrejka 2', Mexx Meerdink 9', Brynjólfur Willumsson 47', Thom van Bergen 54', Ayoub Oufkir 61', Mateo Chávez 76', Mexx Meerdink 90+1'.
Did Moneyball predict AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, AZ Alkmaar Win, was right: 4-3 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
Mexx Meerdink, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?
J. van der Laan.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.