Atlético Mineiro 0-1 Cruzeiro: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Cruzeiro won it

Cruzeiro struck first through Kaio Jorge in the 4th minute, set up by Keny Arroyo.

It was 0-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, R. Claus, showed 7 yellow cards: 2 to Atlético Mineiro and 5 to Cruzeiro.

Atlético Mineiro: E. Domínguez, 4-2-3-1 · Cruzeiro: Artur Jorge, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Atlético Mineiro win the likeliest outcome (46%), and a Cruzeiro win, at 29%, is what happened.

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.0 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 58%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 60%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-29, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.03 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.29 for Cruzeiro.

Atlético Mineiro scored about 2.0 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Atlético Mineiro had 2 shots on target, Cruzeiro 6.

Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Atlético Mineiro had 56% of the ball, but Cruzeiro took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlético Mineiro came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.34 expected goals for and 1.35 against, and had won 41% of their matches.

Cruzeiro came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.53 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 53% of their matches.

Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Keny Arroyo (Cruzeiro), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.

Atlético Mineiro

• Victor Hugo 7.3
• Kevin Castaño 7.3
• Gabriel Delfim 7.2
• Alan Franco 7.2
• Bernard 6.8

Cruzeiro

• Keny Arroyo 7.8 1 assist
• Jonathan Jesus 7.6
• William 7.4
• Lucas Villalba 7.4
• Lucas Romero 7.4

The lowest-rated starter was Vitão at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Atlético Mineiro: Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026 · Brasileirão
• Cruzeiro: Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro

What was the score in Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

Atlético Mineiro 0-1 Cruzeiro (half-time 0-1), Brasileirão, Thursday 29 October 2026.

Who scored in Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

Kaio Jorge 4'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro correctly?

This one went against the numbers. The estimate made an Atlético Mineiro win the likeliest outcome (46%), and a Cruzeiro win, at 29%, is what happened.

Who was man of the match in Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

Keny Arroyo, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?

R. Claus.