Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Arsenal won it

Leeds United struck first through James Justin in the 55th minute, set up by Gabriel Gudmundsson. Arsenal levelled at 1-1 in the 62nd minute through Riccardo Calafiori, set up by Ben White. Arsenal turned it round: Bruno Guimarães made it 2-1 in the 70th minute, set up by Declan Rice.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, P. Tierney, showed 6 yellow cards: 1 to Arsenal and 5 to Leeds United.

Arsenal: M. Arteta, 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United: D. Farke, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call on the result: 46% for an Arsenal win before the match. The scoreline, 2-1, was not the estimate's first choice (1-1).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.5 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 44%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 49%; both did, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had an Arsenal win at 68%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.72 for Arsenal and 2.13 for Leeds United.

Arsenal scored about 1.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Leeds United left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Leeds United created the better chances, 2.13 xG to 0.72, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Arsenal to create more, and Leeds United did.

Arsenal had 6 shots on target, Leeds United 5.

Arsenal had 58% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Arsenal came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 a match, with 1.73 expected goals for and 0.89 against, and had won 90% of their matches.

Leeds United came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.35 expected goals for and 1.26 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Arsenal vs Leeds United: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Noni Madueke (Arsenal), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.

Arsenal

• Noni Madueke 7.5
• Bruno Guimarães 7.5 1 goal
• Riccardo Calafiori 7.5 1 goal
• Declan Rice 7.2 1 assist
• David Raya 7.2

Leeds United

• Gabriel Gudmundsson 7.5 1 assist
• Anton Stach 7.2
• James Justin 7.2 1 goal
• Ethan Ampadu 7.1
• James Trafford 6.6

The lowest-rated starter was Noah Okafor at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Arsenal: Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
• Leeds United: Chelsea vs Leeds United Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Arsenal vs Leeds United

What was the score in Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United (half-time 0-0), Premier League, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Arsenal vs Leeds United?

James Justin 55', Riccardo Calafiori 62', Bruno Guimarães 70'.

Did Moneyball predict Arsenal vs Leeds United correctly?

A correct call on the result: 46% for an Arsenal win before the match. The scoreline, 2-1, was not the estimate's first choice (1-1).

Who was man of the match in Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Noni Madueke, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Arsenal vs Leeds United?

P. Tierney.