Arema 1-3 Bali United: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Bali United won it

The opening goal came in the 40th minute: Marko Dugandžić for Bali United, set up by Irfan Jaya. Irfan Jaya made it 0-2 to Bali United in the 45th minute. Teppei Yachida made it 0-3 to Bali United in the 67th minute, set up by I Kadek Agung Widnyana. Careca made it 1-3 to Arema in the 79th minute.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

Alfeandra Dewangga of Arema was sent off in the 74th minute. Julián Guevara Muñoz of Arema was sent off in the 90th minute (+2). The referee, C. Candra, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Arema and 3 to Bali United.

Arema: M. dos Santos Gonçalves, 4-1-4-1 · Bali United: J. Jansen, 3-4-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Bali United win the most likely outcome at 54%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-3 rather than 1-3.

On goals the estimate was close: about 4.5 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 83%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 79%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Arema had 10 shots on target, Bali United 4.

Bali United's goalkeeper made 7 saves.

Bali United had 52% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Arema came into it with 9 Liga 1 Indonesia matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.2 a match, and had won 22% of their matches.

Bali United came into it with 9 Liga 1 Indonesia matches played, scoring 2.9 and conceding 1.0 a match, and had won 67% of their matches.

Arema vs Bali United: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Irfan Jaya (Bali United), rated 7.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Arema

• Mauro Zijlstra 6.5
• Samuel Otusanya 6.4
• Gustavo França 6.4
• Careca 6.4 1 goal
• Arkhan Fikri 6.3

Bali United

• Irfan Jaya 7.1 1 goal, 1 assist
• Marko Dugandžić 6.8 1 goal
• I Kadek Agung Widnyana 6.6 1 assist
• Teppei Yachida 6.5 1 goal
• Thomas Lam 6.5

The lowest-rated starter was Syahrul Trisna at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Arema: PSS Sleman vs Arema Friday 20 November 2026 · Liga 1 Indonesia
• Bali United: Persib vs Bali United Sunday 22 November 2026 · Liga 1 Indonesia

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Arema vs Bali United

What was the score in Arema vs Bali United?

Arema 1-3 Bali United (half-time 0-2), Liga 1 Indonesia, Saturday 31 October 2026.

Who scored in Arema vs Bali United?

Marko Dugandžić 40', Irfan Jaya 45', Teppei Yachida 67', Careca 79'.

Did Moneyball predict Arema vs Bali United correctly?

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Bali United win the most likely outcome at 54%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-3 rather than 1-3.

Who was man of the match in Arema vs Bali United?

Irfan Jaya, rated 7.1 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Arema vs Bali United?

C. Candra.