Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Prediction and Stats | Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12
Belgian Pro League · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Lotto Park, Brussels · updated 2026-11-13
Anderlecht welcome OH Leuven to Lotto Park in Brussels in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Anderlecht have played 11 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. OH Leuven have played 11 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Anderlecht are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 24% and OH Leuven at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.85, OH Leuven 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Anderlecht: form and key numbers
In style Anderlecht keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
OH Leuven: form and key numbers
In style OH Leuven are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven: season averages side by side
| Anderlecht | Per match this season | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.0 |
| 58.5 | Possession % | 45.5 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 55% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Anderlecht
- Ilias Koutsoupias CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 52 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Tawfik Bentayeb CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 47 · Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air (top 15% of his position)
OH Leuven
- Takuya Ogiwara LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 17% of his position)
- Siebe Schrijvers CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola, 19 · OH Leuven · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Robin Mirisola, 19, plays as a centre-forward for OH Leuven in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.75 / 90 | 93% |
| Duels won | 9.34 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 3.91 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 70% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.53 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What Robin Mirisola is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Robin Mirisola's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven prediction
Anderlecht should have more of the ball, with OH Leuven likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Anderlecht work the ball wide and cross; OH Leuven are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.85 for Anderlecht and 0.95 for OH Leuven - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 52%. Anderlecht have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Anderlecht 2-1 OH Leuven
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven: what the numbers say
- 1. Anderlecht win, the likeliest result 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Anderlecht vs OH Leuven: questions and answers
When is Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Anderlecht vs OH Leuven is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Anderlecht vs OH Leuven played?
At Lotto Park, Brussels, Anderlecht's home ground.
Who will win Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Anderlecht are the favourites: Anderlecht 58%, draw 24%, OH Leuven 18%. Our prediction is Anderlecht 2-1 OH Leuven.
Who is the player to watch in Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Robin Mirisola of OH Leuven: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Anderlecht vs OH Leuven?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.