Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Eredivisie Matchday 11 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · referee A. Lindhout · full time
Full time: Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar
Ajax won 1-0 at home to AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie Matchday 11 on Saturday 31 October 2026. The goals: Tolu Arokodare 9'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Ajax won it
Tolu Arokodare put Ajax ahead in the 9th minute, set up by Abdellah Ouazane.
It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.
The referee, A. Lindhout, showed 3 yellow cards: 1 to Ajax and 2 to AZ Alkmaar.
Ajax: M. Sánchez Muñoz, 4-3-3 · AZ Alkmaar: L. Echteld, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
An Ajax win was the estimate's call at 51%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 1-0 the real one.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.5 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 67%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 67%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.77 for Ajax and 0.82 for AZ Alkmaar.
Ajax had 2 shots on target, AZ Alkmaar 5.
Ajax's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
AZ Alkmaar had 52% of the ball, but Ajax took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Ajax came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.24 expected goals for and 1.44 against, and had won 58% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.32 expected goals for and 1.22 against, and had won 58% of their matches.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: the match in numbers
| Ajax | Match statistics | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Ball possession | 52% |
| 1.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 |
| 9 | Total shots | 20 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 1 | Big chances | 0 |
| 481 | Total passes | 506 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 90% |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 14 | Tackles | 20 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Marc ter Stegen (Ajax), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Ajax
- Marc ter Stegen 8.2
- Tolu Arokodare 7.8 1 goal
- Owen Wijndal 7.3
- Youri Baas 7.2
- Aaron Bouwman 7.2
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink 7.5
- Dave Kwakman 7.4
- Peer Koopmeiners 7.3
- Wesley Hoedt 7.2
- Ro-Zangelo Daal 7.0
The lowest-rated starter was Jorthy Mokio at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Ajax: Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026 · Eredivisie
- AZ Alkmaar: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026 · Eredivisie
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
What was the score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar (half-time 1-0), Eredivisie, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Tolu Arokodare 9'.
Did Moneyball predict Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar correctly?
An Ajax win was the estimate's call at 51%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 1-0 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Marc ter Stegen, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
A. Lindhout.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.