Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Real Madrid won it

The opening goal came in the 28th minute: Federico Valverde for Real Madrid. Arda Güler made it 0-2 to Real Madrid in the 36th minute, set up by Jude Bellingham. Kylian Mbappé made it 0-3 to Real Madrid in the 75th minute, set up by Arda Güler.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

José Gayà of Valencia was sent off in the 79th minute. The referee, F. Hernández Maeso, showed 8 yellow cards: 5 to Valencia and 3 to Real Madrid.

Valencia: J. Aguirre Onaindía, 5-3-2 · Real Madrid: José Mourinho, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25. On 0-3 it was half right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Real Madrid win at 73%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 0-2 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.3 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 63%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 52%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.31 for Valencia and 0.29 for Real Madrid.

Valencia scored about 2.3 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Real Madrid made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 2.7 goals.

Valencia created the better chances, 2.31 xG to 0.29, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Real Madrid to create more, and Valencia did.

Valencia had 2 shots on target, Real Madrid 11.

Valencia's goalkeeper made 8 saves.

Real Madrid had 68% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Valencia came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 0.97 expected goals for and 1.51 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

Real Madrid came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 2.18 expected goals for and 1.15 against, and had won 83% of their matches.

Valencia vs Real Madrid: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Arda Güler (Real Madrid), rated 9.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Valencia

• Stole Dimitrievski 7.6
• Jesús Vázquez 6.6
• César Tárrega 6.5
• Arnaut Danjuma 6.5
• Filip Ugrinic 6.5

Real Madrid

• Arda Güler 9.0 1 goal, 1 assist
• Dean Huijsen 7.8
• Federico Valverde 7.8 1 goal
• Jude Bellingham 7.7 1 assist
• Yan Diomande 7.6

The lowest-rated starter was José Gayà at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Valencia: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
• Real Madrid: Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Valencia vs Real Madrid

What was the score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid (half-time 0-2), La Liga, Saturday 7 November 2026.

Who scored in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Federico Valverde 28', Arda Güler 36', Kylian Mbappé 75'.

Did Moneyball predict Valencia vs Real Madrid correctly?

Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.25. On 0-3 it was half right.

Who was man of the match in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

Arda Güler, rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Valencia vs Real Madrid?

F. Hernández Maeso.