Union Saint-Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Belgian Pro League Matchday 9 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels · referee W. De Cremer · full time
Full time: Union Saint-Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge
Union Saint-Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge: Union Saint-Gilloise took the points in Belgian Pro League Matchday 9 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stade Joseph Mariën. The goals: Steve Ngoura 24', Raul Florucz 49', Massiré Sylla 62', Relebohile Mofokeng 80', Kevin Rodríguez 90'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Union Saint-Gilloise won it
Steve Ngoura put Cercle Brugge ahead in the 24th minute from the penalty spot. An own goal by Massiré Sylla made it 0-2 to Cercle Brugge in the 48th minute. Raul Florucz made it 1-2 to Union Saint-Gilloise in the 49th minute, set up by Denzel De Roeve. Union Saint-Gilloise levelled at 2-2 in the 62nd minute through Massiré Sylla, set up by Nikki Havenaar. Union Saint-Gilloise turned it round: an own goal by Emmanuel Kakou made it 3-2 in the 74th minute. Relebohile Mofokeng made it 4-2 to Union Saint-Gilloise in the 80th minute, set up by Louis Patris. Kevin Rodríguez made it 5-2 to Union Saint-Gilloise in the 90th minute, set up by Relebohile Mofokeng.
Cercle Brugge led by two and lost: Union Saint-Gilloise came back to win it.
It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
The lead changed hands once.
Dante Vanzeir of Cercle Brugge was sent off in the 64th minute. The referee, W. De Cremer, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Union Saint-Gilloise and 3 to Cercle Brugge.
Union Saint-Gilloise: D. Hubert, 3-1-4-2 · Cercle Brugge: L. Friis, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely outcome at 73%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-1 rather than 5-2.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.4 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 66%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 54%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.18 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 2.30 for Cercle Brugge.
Union Saint-Gilloise scored about 3.8 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Cercle Brugge created the better chances, 2.30 xG to 1.18, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Union Saint-Gilloise to create more, and Cercle Brugge did.
Union Saint-Gilloise had 12 shots on target, Cercle Brugge 2.
Cercle Brugge's goalkeeper made 8 saves.
Union Saint-Gilloise had 67% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Union Saint-Gilloise came into it with 11 Belgian Pro League matches played, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.6 a match, with 1.91 expected goals for and 1.11 against, and had won 82% of their matches.
Cercle Brugge came into it with 11 Belgian Pro League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.41 expected goals for and 1.84 against, and had won 18% of their matches.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge: the match in numbers
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Match statistics | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| 67% | Ball possession | 33% |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.30 |
| 20 | Total shots | 5 |
| 12 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 2 | Big chances | 2 |
| 528 | Total passes | 263 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 66% |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 15 | Tackles | 17 |
| 1 | Saves | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Relebohile Mofokeng (Union Saint-Gilloise), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Union Saint-Gilloise
- Relebohile Mofokeng 8.8 1 goal, 1 assist
- Massiré Sylla 8.2 1 goal
- Kevin Rodríguez 7.5 1 goal
- Nikki Havenaar 7.4 1 assist
- Louis Patris 7.2 1 assist
Cercle Brugge
- Gaëtan Coucke 7.2
- Abdoulie Manneh 6.8
- Steve Ngoura 6.8 1 goal
- Royer Caicedo 6.5
- Luke Le Roux 6.5
The lowest-rated starter was Emmanuel Kakou at 5.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Union Saint-Gilloise: KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Sunday 22 November 2026 · Belgian Pro League
- Cercle Brugge: Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo Friday 20 November 2026 · Belgian Pro League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
What was the score in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Union Saint-Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge (half-time 0-1), Belgian Pro League, Sunday 25 October 2026.
Who scored in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Steve Ngoura 24', Raul Florucz 49', Massiré Sylla 62', Relebohile Mofokeng 80', Kevin Rodríguez 90'.
Did Moneyball predict Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely outcome at 73%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-1 rather than 5-2.
Who was man of the match in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Relebohile Mofokeng, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
W. De Cremer.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.