Paderborn 1-0 Hamburger SV: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 7 · Saturday 24 October 2026 · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn · referee M. Petersen · full time
Full time: Paderborn 1-0 Hamburger SV
Paderborn won 1-0 at home to Hamburger SV in Bundesliga Matchday 7 on Saturday 24 October 2026. The goals: Rayan Philippe 88'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Paderborn won it
Rayan Philippe put Paderborn ahead in the 88th minute, set up by Felix Götze. It came late, and it settled the match.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, M. Petersen, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Paderborn and 3 to Hamburger SV.
Paderborn: R. Kettemann, 3-5-2 · Hamburger SV: M. Polzin, 3-5-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, SC Paderborn 07 0.00, was right: 1-0 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Paderborn win at 43%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.8 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 52%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 56%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Paderborn win at 40%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.48 for Paderborn and 1.72 for Hamburger SV.
Hamburger SV left about 1.7 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Hamburger SV created the better chances, 1.72 xG to 0.48, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Paderborn to create more, and Hamburger SV did.
Paderborn had 6 shots on target, Hamburger SV 1.
Hamburger SV's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Paderborn had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Paderborn came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.26 expected goals for and 1.55 against, and had won 22% of their matches.
Hamburger SV came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV: the match in numbers
| Paderborn | Match statistics | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 16 | Total shots | 8 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 2 | Big chances | 0 |
| 532 | Total passes | 333 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 72% |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 12 | Tackles | 22 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Tjark Scheller (Paderborn), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Paderborn
- Tjark Scheller 7.8
- Santiago Castañeda 7.6
- Raphael Obermair 7.5
- Laurin Curda 7.4
- Felix Götze 7.4 1 assist
Hamburger SV
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes 7.2
- Zakaria El Ouahdi 7.2
- Martin Adeline 7.1
- Bilal Nadir 7.0
- Otto Stange 7.0
The lowest-rated starter was Gabriel Vidovic at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Paderborn: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- Hamburger SV: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Paderborn vs Hamburger SV
What was the score in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Paderborn 1-0 Hamburger SV (half-time 0-0), Bundesliga, Saturday 24 October 2026.
Who scored in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Rayan Philippe 88'.
Did Moneyball predict Paderborn vs Hamburger SV correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, SC Paderborn 07 0.00, was right: 1-0 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
Tjark Scheller, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?
M. Petersen.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.