Sarmiento 1-2 Rosario Central: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Rosario Central won it

Sarmiento struck first through Manuel García in the 5th minute, set up by Julián Mavilla. Rosario Central levelled at 1-1 in the 29th minute through Gastón Ávila, set up by Enzo Copetti. Rosario Central turned it round: Gastón Ávila made it 1-2 in the 90th minute (+5), set up by Ignacio Ovando. It came late, and it settled the match.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Gastón Ávila scored twice.

The lead changed hands once.

Renzo Orihuela of Sarmiento was sent off in the 67th minute. Santiago Salle of Sarmiento was sent off in the 90th minute. Facundo Sava of Sarmiento was sent off in the 90th minute (+9). The referee, A. Merlos, showed 6 yellow cards: 4 to Sarmiento and 2 to Rosario Central.

Sarmiento: F. Sava, 4-2-3-1 · Rosario Central: J. Almirón Quintana, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Right result, right score: 1-2 was the estimate's most likely scoreline at 10%, and it came in.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-30, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.23 for Sarmiento and 1.12 for Rosario Central.

Sarmiento scored about 1.2 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Sarmiento created the better chances, 2.23 xG to 1.12, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Rosario Central to create more, and Sarmiento did.

Sarmiento had 2 shots on target, Rosario Central 6.

Rosario Central had 65% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Sarmiento came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.03 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 38% of their matches.

Rosario Central came into it with 35 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.48 expected goals for and 0.95 against, and had won 57% of their matches.

Sarmiento vs Rosario Central: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Gastón Ávila (Rosario Central), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Sarmiento

• Manuel García 7.5 1 goal
• Ulises Giménez 7.1
• Julián Mavilla 6.9 1 assist
• Lucas Suárez 6.9
• Juan Manuel Insaurralde 6.8

Rosario Central

• Gastón Ávila 8.7 2 goals
• Jáminton Campaz 8.2
• Ignacio Ovando 7.2 1 assist
• Enzo Copetti 7.2 1 assist
• Franco Cervi 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Elián Giménez at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Rosario Central: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Sunday 22 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Sarmiento vs Rosario Central

What was the score in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?

Sarmiento 1-2 Rosario Central (half-time 1-1), Liga Profesional Argentina, Saturday 31 October 2026.

Who scored in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?

Manuel García 5', Gastón Ávila 29', Gastón Ávila 90+5'.

Did Moneyball predict Sarmiento vs Rosario Central correctly?

Right result, right score: 1-2 was the estimate's most likely scoreline at 10%, and it came in.

Who was man of the match in Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?

Gastón Ávila, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Sarmiento vs Rosario Central?

A. Merlos.