Rizespor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Süper Lig Matchday 11 · Sunday 8 November 2026 · Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize · referee D. Tonusluoğlu · full time
Full time: Rizespor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK
Rizespor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK: Rizespor took the points in Süper Lig Matchday 11 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. The goals: Ali Sowe 31', Ibrahim Diabate 37', Ali Sowe 66'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Rizespor won it
The opening goal came in the 31st minute: Ali Sowe for Rizespor, set up by Ibrahim Olawoyin. Erzurumspor FK levelled at 1-1 in the 37th minute through Ibrahim Diabate, set up by Gyrano Kerk. Ali Sowe made it 2-1 to Rizespor in the 66th minute, set up by Adedire Mebude.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Ali Sowe scored twice.
The referee, D. Tonusluoğlu, showed 3 yellow cards: 0 to Rizespor and 3 to Erzurumspor FK.
Rizespor: R. Uçar, 4-1-4-1 · Erzurumspor FK: S. Özbalta, 5-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Rizespor win the most likely outcome at 46%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-0 rather than 2-1.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.3 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 40%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 46%; both did, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.67 for Rizespor and 3.67 for Erzurumspor FK.
Rizespor scored about 1.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Erzurumspor FK left about 2.7 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Erzurumspor FK created the better chances, 3.67 xG to 0.67, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Rizespor to create more, and Erzurumspor FK did.
Rizespor had 6 shots on target, Erzurumspor FK 4.
Rizespor had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Rizespor came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.30 against, and had won 36% of their matches.
Erzurumspor FK came into it with 11 Süper Lig matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 0.85 expected goals for and 1.52 against, and had won 36% of their matches.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK: the match in numbers
| Rizespor | Match statistics | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.67 |
| 24 | Total shots | 9 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 7 | Big chances | 1 |
| 615 | Total passes | 366 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 79% |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 14 | Tackles | 31 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ali Sowe (Rizespor), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Rizespor
- Ali Sowe 8.2 2 goals
- Qazim Laci 8.2
- Adedire Mebude 7.7 1 assist
- Zakaria Ariss 7.3
- Ibrahim Olawoyin 7.2 1 assist
Erzurumspor FK
- Ibrahim Diabate 7.6 1 goal
- Orhan Ovacıklı 7.4
- Ertuğrul Taşkıran 7.0
- Brandon Baiye 6.9
- Eren Tozlu 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Siaka Bakayoko at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Rizespor: Amed SK vs Rizespor Saturday 21 November 2026 · Süper Lig
- Erzurumspor FK: Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Sunday 22 November 2026 · Süper Lig
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK
What was the score in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Rizespor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK (half-time 1-1), Süper Lig, Sunday 8 November 2026.
Who scored in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Ali Sowe 31', Ibrahim Diabate 37', Ali Sowe 66'.
Did Moneyball predict Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Rizespor win the most likely outcome at 46%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 2-0 rather than 2-1.
Who was man of the match in Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Ali Sowe, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK?
D. Tonusluoğlu.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.