Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 15 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · Fratton Park, Portsmouth · referee B. Speedie · full time
Full time: Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City
Stoke City won 2-1 away at Portsmouth in Championship Matchday 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026. The goals: Tyrese Shade 6', Jack McGlynn 59', Ben Wilmot 77'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Stoke City won it
The opening goal came in the 6th minute: Tyrese Shade for Portsmouth. Stoke City levelled at 1-1 in the 59th minute through Jack McGlynn, set up by Luca Bombino. Stoke City turned it round: Ben Wilmot made it 1-2 in the 77th minute, set up by Ethan Galbraith.
It was 1-0 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, B. Speedie, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Portsmouth and 3 to Stoke City.
Portsmouth: J. Mousinho, 4-2-3-1 · Stoke City: M. Robins, 3-4-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Portsmouth -0.25, and on 1-2 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Portsmouth win at 42%; a Stoke City win, at 29%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (14%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.3 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 41%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 47%; both did, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.53 for Portsmouth and 0.58 for Stoke City.
Stoke City made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.4 goals.
Portsmouth had 3 shots on target, Stoke City 3.
Portsmouth had 54% of the ball, but Stoke City took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Portsmouth came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.25 expected goals for and 1.28 against, and had won 40% of their matches.
Stoke City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.41 against, and had won 60% of their matches.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: the match in numbers
| Portsmouth | Match statistics | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 54% | Ball possession | 46% |
| 0.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.58 |
| 8 | Total shots | 4 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 0 | Big chances | 1 |
| 373 | Total passes | 324 |
| 75% | Pass accuracy | 71% |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 19 | Tackles | 14 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ben Wilmot (Stoke City), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Portsmouth
- Tyrese Shade 7.4 1 goal
- Odin Bailey 7.0
- Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 6.9
- Rocco Shein 6.8
- Ebou Adams 6.8
Stoke City
- Ben Wilmot 7.5 1 goal
- Ethan Galbraith 7.3 1 assist
- Luke Graham 7.1
- Viktor Johansson 7.0
- Djibril Soumaré 7.0
The lowest-rated starter was Nicolas Schmid at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Portsmouth: Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Stoke City: Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Portsmouth vs Stoke City
What was the score in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke City (half-time 1-0), Championship, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Tyrese Shade 6', Jack McGlynn 59', Ben Wilmot 77'.
Did Moneyball predict Portsmouth vs Stoke City correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Portsmouth -0.25, and on 1-2 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Ben Wilmot, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
B. Speedie.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.