Porto 0-1 PSV: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Champions League Matchday 3 · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · referee D. Siebert · full time
Full time: Porto 0-1 PSV
Porto 0-1 PSV: PSV took the points in Champions League Matchday 3 on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Estádio Do Dragão. The goals: Guus Til 57'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How PSV won it
The opening goal came in the 57th minute: Guus Til for PSV, set up by Sven Mijnans.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, D. Siebert, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to Porto and 2 to PSV.
Porto: F. Farioli, 4-3-3 · PSV: P. Bosz, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, PSV Eindhoven +1.00, was right: 0-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Porto win at 56%; a PSV win, at 21%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.1 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 60%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 60%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Porto win at 58%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-20, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
Porto had 4 shots on target, PSV 3.
PSV had 60% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Porto came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.46 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.
PSV came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.86 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.
Porto vs PSV: the match in numbers
| Porto | Match statistics | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 40% | Ball possession | 60% |
| 14 | Total shots | 18 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Big chances | 4 |
| 418 | Total passes | 610 |
| 81% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Offsides | 3 |
| 8 | Tackles | 13 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Sven Mijnans (PSV), rated 8.1 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.
Porto
- Pablo Rosario 7.1
- Alberto Costa 7.1
- Jan Bednarek 7.0
- Diogo Costa 7.0
- Jakub Kiwior 6.8
PSV
- Sven Mijnans 8.1 1 assist
- Guus Til 7.9 1 goal
- Sergiño Dest 7.6
- Lutsharel Geertruida 7.6
- Esmir Bajraktarevic 7.3
The lowest-rated starter was Oskar Pietuszewski at 6.4. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Porto: Feyenoord vs Porto Tuesday 24 November 2026 · Champions League
- PSV: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Saturday 21 November 2026 · Eredivisie
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Porto vs PSV
What was the score in Porto vs PSV?
Porto 0-1 PSV (half-time 0-0), Champions League, Tuesday 20 October 2026.
Who scored in Porto vs PSV?
Guus Til 57'.
Did Moneyball predict Porto vs PSV correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, PSV Eindhoven +1.00, was right: 0-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Porto vs PSV?
Sven Mijnans, rated 8.1 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Porto vs PSV?
D. Siebert.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.