Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
MLS · Monday 2 November 2026 · Providence Park, Portland · referee D. Fischer · full time
Full time: Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers won 3-1 at home to Houston Dynamo in MLS on Monday 2 November 2026. The goals: David Da Costa 25', Kristoffer Velde 65', Agustín Bouzat 71', Vincent Janssen 78'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Portland Timbers won it
David Da Costa put Portland Timbers ahead in the 25th minute, set up by Vincent Janssen. Kristoffer Velde made it 2-0 to Portland Timbers in the 65th minute, set up by Vincent Janssen. Agustín Bouzat made it 2-1 to Houston Dynamo in the 71st minute, set up by Duncan McGuire. Vincent Janssen made it 3-1 to Portland Timbers in the 78th minute, set up by David Da Costa.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, D. Fischer, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Portland Timbers and 2 to Houston Dynamo.
Portland Timbers: M. Cifuentes Corvillo, 4-1-4-1 · Houston Dynamo: B. Olsen, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Portland Timbers Win, was right: 3-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Portland Timbers win at 56%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 58%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-01, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.60 for Portland Timbers and 2.94 for Houston Dynamo.
Portland Timbers scored about 2.4 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Houston Dynamo left about 1.9 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Houston Dynamo created the better chances, 2.94 xG to 0.60, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Portland Timbers to create more, and Houston Dynamo did.
Portland Timbers had 6 shots on target, Houston Dynamo 1.
Houston Dynamo had 55% of the ball, but Portland Timbers took the points.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Portland Timbers came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.52 expected goals for and 1.43 against, and had won 38% of their matches.
Houston Dynamo came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.09 expected goals for and 1.79 against, and had won 41% of their matches.
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo: the match in numbers
| Portland Timbers | Match statistics | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Ball possession | 55% |
| 0.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.94 |
| 18 | Total shots | 8 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 6 | Big chances | 0 |
| 443 | Total passes | 542 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 88% |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 11 | Tackles | 14 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Vincent Janssen (Portland Timbers), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 2 assists.
Portland Timbers
- Vincent Janssen 8.7 1 goal, 2 assists
- Kristoffer Velde 8.2 1 goal
- David Da Costa 8.1 1 goal, 1 assist
- Joel Waterman 7.3
- Ian Smith 7.2
Houston Dynamo
- Agustín Bouzat 7.2 1 goal
- Duncan McGuire 6.8 1 assist
- Lawrence Ennali 6.7
- Artur 6.6
- Duane Holmes 6.5
The lowest-rated starter was Diadié Samassékou at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Portland Timbers: Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026 · MLS
- Houston Dynamo: SJ Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Wednesday 25 November 2026 · MLS
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
What was the score in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo (half-time 1-0), MLS, Monday 2 November 2026.
Who scored in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
David Da Costa 25', Kristoffer Velde 65', Agustín Bouzat 71', Vincent Janssen 78'.
Did Moneyball predict Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Portland Timbers Win, was right: 3-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
Vincent Janssen, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?
D. Fischer.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.