Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Madura United: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga 1 Indonesia Matchday 7 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya · referee E. Saputra · full time
Full time: Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Madura United
Persebaya Surabaya won 3-1 at home to Madura United in Liga 1 Indonesia Matchday 7 on Monday 26 October 2026. The goals: Miguel Pereira 22', Gali Freitas 69', Yuran Fernandes 90+1', Yann Mabella 90+6'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Persebaya Surabaya won it
Persebaya Surabaya struck first through Miguel Pereira in the 22nd minute, set up by Gledson. Madura United levelled at 1-1 in the 69th minute through Gali Freitas. Yuran Fernandes from the penalty spot made it 2-1 to Persebaya Surabaya in the 90th minute (+1). Yann Mabella made it 3-1 to Persebaya Surabaya in the 90th minute (+6), set up by Miguel Pereira.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
Paulo Sitanggang of Madura United was sent off in the 62nd minute. The referee, E. Saputra, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to Persebaya Surabaya and 3 to Madura United.
Persebaya Surabaya: B. Tavares, 4-2-3-1 · Madura United: J. Gomes da Silva, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Persebaya Surabaya Win, and on 3-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Persebaya Surabaya win at 60%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 59%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-26, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
Persebaya Surabaya had 5 shots on target, Madura United 3.
Persebaya Surabaya had 60% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Persebaya Surabaya came into it with 9 Liga 1 Indonesia matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 a match, and had won 33% of their matches.
Madura United came into it with 9 Liga 1 Indonesia matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.1 a match, and had won 67% of their matches.
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United: the match in numbers
| Persebaya Surabaya | Match statistics | Madura United |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | Ball possession | 40% |
| 15 | Total shots | 6 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 404 | Total passes | 273 |
| 85% | Pass accuracy | 78% |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Tackles | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Miguel Pereira (Persebaya Surabaya), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Persebaya Surabaya
- Miguel Pereira 8.8 1 goal, 1 assist
- Yuran Fernandes 8.1 1 goal
- Yann Mabella 7.6 1 goal
- Gledson 7.5 1 assist
- Francisco Rivera 7.2
Madura United
- Jorge Ambrosio Mendonça 6.8
- Lulinha 6.7
- Gali Freitas 6.6 1 goal
- Iran Junior 6.6
- Dimitar Mitkov 6.5
The lowest-rated starter was Angga Saputra at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Persebaya Surabaya: Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C Saturday 21 November 2026 · Liga 1 Indonesia
- Madura United: Garudayaksa FC vs Madura United Friday 20 November 2026 · Liga 1 Indonesia
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United
What was the score in Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Madura United (half-time 1-0), Liga 1 Indonesia, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Miguel Pereira 22', Gali Freitas 69', Yuran Fernandes 90+1', Yann Mabella 90+6'.
Did Moneyball predict Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Persebaya Surabaya Win, and on 3-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Miguel Pereira, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
E. Saputra.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.