MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Paris 4-3 Rennes: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Paris 4-3 Rennes

Paris won 4-3 at home to Rennes in Ligue 1 Matchday 7 on Sunday 18 October 2026. The goals: Maxime Lopez 14', Estéban Lepaul 29', Maxime Lopez 45+4', Estéban Lepaul 74', Lassine Sinayoko 76', Estéban Lepaul 88', Lassine Sinayoko 90+7'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How Paris won it

The opening goal came in the 14th minute: Maxime Lopez for Paris, set up by Lassine Sinayoko. Rennes levelled at 1-1 in the 29th minute through Estéban Lepaul from the penalty spot. Maxime Lopez made it 2-1 to Paris in the 45th minute (+4), set up by Lassine Sinayoko. Rennes levelled at 2-2 in the 74th minute through Estéban Lepaul from the penalty spot. Lassine Sinayoko made it 3-2 to Paris in the 76th minute. Rennes levelled at 3-3 in the 88th minute through Estéban Lepaul from the penalty spot. Lassine Sinayoko from the penalty spot made it 4-3 to Paris in the 90th minute (+7).

It was 2-1 at half-time.

Maxime Lopez scored twice.

Estéban Lepaul scored a hat-trick.

Lassine Sinayoko scored twice.

The referee, B. Dechepy, showed 6 yellow cards: 2 to Paris and 4 to Rennes.

Paris: L. Rosenior, 4-2-3-1 · Rennes: F. Haise, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.00, and on 4-3 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Paris win at 43%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 7.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 64%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Paris win at 39%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 3.05 for Paris and 3.25 for Rennes.

Paris had 9 shots on target, Rennes 7.

Paris had 52% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Paris came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.06 against, and had won 60% of their matches.

Rennes came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.92 expected goals for and 1.90 against, and had won 50% of their matches.

Paris vs Rennes: the match in numbers

ParisMatch statisticsRennes
52%Ball possession48%
3.05Expected goals (xG)3.25
19Total shots12
9Shots on target7
3Big chances5
521Total passes464
85%Pass accuracy83%
3Corners4
13Fouls16
1Offsides0
15Tackles14
4Saves4
3Yellow cards4

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Lassine Sinayoko (Paris), rated 9.6 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals, 2 assists.

Paris

Rennes

The lowest-rated starter was Samir Chergui at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Paris vs Rennes

What was the score in Paris vs Rennes?

Paris 4-3 Rennes (half-time 2-1), Ligue 1, Sunday 18 October 2026.

Who scored in Paris vs Rennes?

Maxime Lopez 14', Estéban Lepaul 29', Maxime Lopez 45+4', Estéban Lepaul 74', Lassine Sinayoko 76', Estéban Lepaul 88', Lassine Sinayoko 90+7'.

Did Moneyball predict Paris vs Rennes correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.00, and on 4-3 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Paris vs Rennes?

Lassine Sinayoko, rated 9.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Paris vs Rennes?

B. Dechepy.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.